Six Polymarket accounts collectively pocketed approximately $1.2 million by correctly predicting that the United States would launch a military strike on Iran on Feb. 28, according to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps. The firm posted on X that most of the wallets were funded within the last 24 hours before the attack and bought “Yes” shares in the “U.S. strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?” market just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran and other cities.
Funds and trading patterns
Bubblemaps released a visual map showing the six wallets clustered together and funded through similar pathways. One account purchased more than 560,000 “Yes” shares at an average price of 10.8 cents each, a position that paid out nearly $560,000 after the market resolved at $1. Another account bought nearly 150,000 shares at 20 cents, turning a six-figure profit. All six profiles were created in February, according to Polymarket data. Trading volume on the contract reached nearly $90 million, part of more than $529 million wagered across related strike-date markets since December.
Timing and market impact
The strikes followed a televised address by U.S. President Donald Trump announcing what he called “major combat operations,” targeting the country’s missile, naval, and nuclear infrastructure. Bitcoin’s price dropped on the news, while oil futures on Hyperliquid rose. The bets were placed just before explosions were reported, raising red flags about possible non-public information usage.
Regulatory scrutiny on prediction markets
U.S. regulators are stepping up oversight of insider trading on event contracts. This week, rival platform Kalshi suspended and fined two users for insider trading, including a visual effects editor for MrBeast’s “Beast Games” who allegedly traded on knowledge of show outcomes. Kalshi, a designated contract market registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said it has investigated about 200 cases and has more than a dozen active probes. The CFTC issued an advisory warning that insider trading on event contracts may violate federal law. Chairman Mike Selig called exchanges the “first line of defense.” Meanwhile, Polymarket traders have appeared to insider trade a market on insider trading itself. Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT last week revealed an investigation into Axiom, whose employees he believed used non-public information to trade.