SpaceX will report its first quarterly results as a public company after the U.S. market closes on Aug. 4, giving investors their first official look at the company’s operating performance and the commercial progress of its AI business, Starlink satellite internet unit and space operations.
The stock has already seen sharp moves ahead of the release. On Monday, SpaceX fell as low as $104.83 in intraday trading, the lowest level since its listing, before reversing higher to close up 5.7% at $114.53.
At a valuation of roughly $1.4 trillion, the immediate issue for the market is less about one quarter’s profit and more about whether SpaceX can show that its future growth path is starting to take shape. Investors are mainly watching three areas: whether AI investment is turning into commercial revenue, whether Starlink’s growth is holding up, and whether upcoming share unlocks will add short-term pressure.
In a preview note, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Colin Canfield said the first earnings release could produce a wide gap between expectations and actual results because investors do not yet have historical quarterly data for comparison.
AI business is the biggest focus
AI is expected to be the most closely watched segment in the report.
SpaceX completed its merger with xAI in February, formally bringing the AI business into the company. xAI has built two large data centers, Colossus I and Colossus II, in Tennessee and Mississippi, and continues to expand its AI compute infrastructure.
Data cited in the report preview show xAI generated about $818 million in revenue in the first quarter, while posting an operating loss of $2.5 billion and capital expenditures of about $7.7 billion. That leaves the business firmly in an investment-heavy phase.
For that reason, the key question is not whether AI is profitable yet. The market wants to know whether sustained spending is beginning to produce new revenue streams. The main points under review are:
- whether AI data center construction is on schedule;
- whether compute leasing can add incremental revenue;
- whether capital spending will continue to rise;
- how SpaceX and xAI plan to develop future business synergies.
SpaceX has already signed an AI compute agreement with Anthropic, with the contract valued at about $1.25 billion per month, and the scale began expanding in May and June. The company has also reached a related agreement with Google, though the revenue contribution has not yet been disclosed.
If the AI infrastructure build-out starts forming a workable commercial loop, that business could become a major support for future growth.
Starlink remains the core commercial engine
Compared with AI, which is still absorbing heavy investment, Starlink is already SpaceX’s most mature commercial business.
As of the end of the first quarter, Starlink had more than 10 million users worldwide, up from about 5 million a year earlier. In 2025, Starlink generated about $11.4 billion in revenue and about $4.4 billion in operating profit.
In this earnings release, investors are likely to focus on several metrics:
- whether user growth is holding up;
- progress in winning enterprise and government customers;
- changes in average revenue per user, or ARPU;
- the size of enterprise orders and the room for future expansion.
Starlink has been moving beyond consumer broadband into enterprise, aviation, maritime and government markets. If both user growth and profitability keep improving, its role as a key source of cash flow for SpaceX will become even more important.
Starship and launch operations are still in an investment phase
Beyond AI and Starlink, rocket launches remain a core part of SpaceX’s business foundation.
In July, SpaceX completed the 13th test flight of Starship. The market expects the company to outline follow-up testing plans and the pace of commercialization during the earnings call.
Financially, though, the space segment is still in build-out mode. In the first quarter, capital expenditures in SpaceX’s space business reached $1.1 billion, mainly for new factories and equipment. In 2025, that segment produced about $4.1 billion in revenue but recorded an operating loss of about $657 million.
SpaceX also carried out about 30 Falcon 9 launches in the second quarter, with most missions tied to Starlink satellite deployment. Because internal launches are not counted as traditional launch revenue, rocket operations are still unlikely to become a major profit source in the near term.
Over the longer run, the commercial progress of Starship and the company’s ability to provide low-cost orbital transport will shape the value of this business.
Share unlocks add another near-term variable
Outside the earnings report itself, investors are also tracking the upcoming lockup expirations.
According to the cited filings, about 912 million SpaceX shares are set to be unlocked starting Aug. 6, with another roughly 319 million shares due to be released a week later. That increase in tradable supply could add short-term pressure and has been one of the factors behind recent volatility.
Even so, lockup effects are often reflected in trading before the actual date. Once the shares are unlocked, stock performance will still depend on changes in the company’s fundamentals and on what the earnings report says about future growth.
If AI commercialization is progressing well and Starlink keeps expanding, some of the unlock pressure could be absorbed. If spending keeps rising while revenue growth fails to keep pace with expectations, the market may revisit SpaceX’s growth path.
A high valuation leaves little room for weak execution
SpaceX’s roughly $1.4 trillion valuation already reflects elevated expectations for future expansion.
The company’s three growth tracks — launch services, satellite internet and AI infrastructure — are central to that valuation. At the same time, investors are testing whether those businesses can be turned into durable revenue and profit.
For now, Starlink is already commercialized and producing strong cash flow. AI is still in a heavy spending cycle and needs to show that its infrastructure build-out can deliver long-term returns. Starship carries strategic importance, but it still requires continued investment in the near term.
That leaves three main questions for the quarter:
- Can AI revenue growth keep up with capital investment?
- Can Starlink continue to improve both user growth and profitability?
- Will capital expenditures rise further from here?
If SpaceX can show that AI and satellite internet are forming new growth curves, its valuation may continue to find support. If delivery runs behind expectations, the market may reassess the company’s current growth assumptions.
First earnings release becomes a key test for the next stage
Wall Street currently expects SpaceX to generate about $39 billion in revenue and about $17.3 billion in EBITDA for full-year 2026.
Still, the bigger significance of this report may not be the headline numbers. It is a test of the company’s next-stage narrative: whether AI can move from heavy investment to commercialization, whether Starlink can maintain rapid growth, and whether the space business can eventually open a new long-term value pool.
As SpaceX’s first public earnings release, the report will serve not only as a quarterly scorecard but also as a fresh reference point for how investors judge the company’s future growth trajectory.