On June 12, SpaceX will list on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX at $135 per share, implying a $1.75 trillion valuation—the largest IPO in capital markets history. Retail investors can participate through Fidelity, Robinhood, Charles Schwab, and other platforms, with 30% of the shares allocated to individuals and a minimum investment as low as $2,000. Essentially, anyone with a U.S. brokerage account can buy in. The immediate question: should you buy, and when?
Facing this historic opportunity, the market has coalesced around four strategic frameworks. Here’s a breakdown. Key timeline: June 11—pricing at $135; June 12—debut, with only 3% of shares freely floating; early July—Nasdaq 100 fast-track inclusion (approximately 15 trading days after listing); September—first quarterly report (Q2 2026), revealing AI segment losses for the first time; after that report—first lock-up release allows certain insiders to sell up to 20% of their holdings; December—major lock-up expiration for early employees, VCs, and underwriting banks; June 2027—Elon Musk’s 366-day lock-up expires.
Strategy 1: Buy on Day One, Betting on a Short-Term Supply-Demand Imbalance
This is the most aggressive approach, predicated on the belief that supply will be far outweighed by demand at the outset. Three structural factors support this view. First, the free float is minuscule—just about 3% of total shares—meaning even moderate buying interest could drive the stock significantly higher. Second, the Nasdaq 100’s accelerated inclusion mechanism could allow SpaceX to be added to the index as soon as 15 trading days post-IPO, compelling all passive funds and ETFs tracking the index to buy. Morningstar, while arguing that SpaceX is overvalued by a factor of two, acknowledges this dynamic could provide near-term support. Third, the underwriting syndicate is formidable, led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citi, and JPMorgan, with 21 institutions involved—top-tier banks have both the motivation and capacity to stabilize the stock in early trading. Together, these forces could generate powerful buying pressure on day one. A historical parallel: Saudi Aramco’s 2019 IPO was priced at $25.60 and rose 10% on its first day, though it traded only on a local exchange with far less liquidity than Nasdaq. The key risk is a systemic market crash during IPO week—be it a geopolitical shock or a hawkish Fed surprise—which even the strongest underwriting syndicate could not resist. Additionally, the fixed $135 pricing bypasses the traditional book-building range, leaving no buffer if real demand falls short of expectations.
Strategy 2: Wait for the First Earnings Report, Then Decide
SpaceX’s first quarterly report as a public company is expected in September 2026, covering Q2 2026. This will be the first time it discloses detailed AI business losses under public-company standards—how much xAI burns each quarter, the trajectory of Starlink’s subscriber growth, and Grok’s enterprise customer progress will all be answered. Crucially, that same report also triggers the first lock-up release, allowing certain insiders to sell up to 20% of their shares, a far shorter window than the typical 180-day lock-up. History offers a cautionary case: Uber went public in May 2019 at $45 and opened below its IPO price, yet its true bottom came in March 2020 ($13.71) and again in June 2022 (~$20). From IPO to May 2023, Uber underperformed the S&P 500 by 116 percentage points; since then, it has outperformed by 118 points. Investors who waited for a more reasonable valuation were eventually rewarded. This strategy suits those who are bullish on SpaceX’s long-term prospects but uncomfortable with the $1.75T valuation, and who are willing to let three months pass for a clearer picture. The biggest risk is that the stock rallies on day one and continues upward after Nasdaq 100 inclusion, making any delay a costly exercise in FOMO.
Strategy 3: Wait for Lock-Up Expirations, Buy into the Selling Pressure
This is the most patient strategy, betting that a wave of insider selling will create a more attractive entry point. SpaceX’s lock-up structure is unconventional: Musk himself is locked up for 366 days, until mid-June 2027; other executives and early investors begin phased releases after the Q2 2026 earnings report, with full unlock by the Q2 2027 report. A first major cluster of expirations could occur around December 2026. According to a BitMEX trading analysis, this could produce “potentially the largest single-day insider sell-off in market history,” as early employees with near-zero cost bases, early VC backers, and underwriting banks all become simultaneous sellers. If AI losses widen in the Q2 and Q3 reports and the narrative shifts from “AI tailwind” to “AI drag,” selling pressure could intensify. As a historical reference, Facebook’s 2012 IPO priced at $38 and eventually fell to $17.55 after its lock-up expired—a cut of more than half. Yet investors who bought at that low and held have seen over 30x returns. This strategy is suited for those who believe Starlink is the real driver of long-term value and who are willing to wait 6–12 months for a greater margin of safety. The primary risk is that SpaceX announces blowout results during the wait (e.g., Starship commercial operations begin, Starlink surpasses 15 million users, or AI unexpectedly turns profitable), pushing the stock price to levels that even a lock-up flood cannot depress. Not all lock-up expirations lead to declines—Netflix and Amazon both recovered quickly after their lock-ups ended.
Strategy 4: Don’t Buy SPCX—Buy the “Shovel Sellers” Instead
Rather than directly participating in the IPO, this strategy focuses on companies that are certain to benefit from the SpaceX ecosystem. On the hardware supply-chain side, Nvidia (NVDA) supplies GB200 and GB300 chips for SpaceX’s Colossus data center, and custom chips are heavily used in Starship’s avionics and Starlink terminals. Intel (INTC) could also gain if the Terafab chip factory materializes. For indirect ETF exposure, the Cambria ERShares Private Investments ETF (XOVR) holds a special purpose vehicle linked to SpaceX; as of April 2026, its SpaceX exposure reportedly exceeds 40% of total fund holdings. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) will automatically gain exposure once SpaceX is included. This approach suits investors who believe the SpaceX listing will lift the entire space and AI infrastructure sector but want to avoid single-stock concentration risk at a $1.75T valuation. The main risk is that indirect exposure may not deliver returns equal to direct ownership. If SpaceX surges after listing, the opportunity cost for sideline watchers could be substantial.
Closing Thoughts
None of these four strategies is intrinsically right or wrong; they differ in how one assesses two variables: SpaceX’s long-term intrinsic value, and the time the market needs to digest a $1.75 trillion valuation. If you believe Starlink’s growth can support a $600B+ valuation and that the space-computing option is truly worth $1 trillion, then buying at any price for the long haul is justified. If you think a 94x revenue multiple will take time to absorb and that lock-up expirations and AI loss disclosures represent foreseeable pressure points, waiting for a better entry price is the more rational choice. No one is obligated to decide on day one of the largest IPO ever. SpaceX won’t disappear after June 12; its rockets will keep launching and Starlink’s user base will keep growing. Waiting gives investors more information and a larger margin of safety. In capital markets, the cost of missing a single rally is almost always smaller than the cost of being trapped at the wrong price.
Disclaimer: This article reflects the analytical views of Chaoxiang Research and does not constitute investment advice. SpaceX has not yet officially begun trading; all valuation, pricing, and timeline references are based on public reports and S-1 filings and are subject to change. Investors should carefully read the prospectus filed with the SEC, fully understand the associated risks, and make independent decisions based on their own financial situation and risk tolerance.