A TechFlow Selected article by Chaoxiang Research frames SpaceX’s planned Nasdaq debut as a decision between buying immediately and waiting for more information. According to the article, SpaceX will list on June 12 at $135 per share under the ticker SPCX, with an implied valuation of $1.75 trillion. The piece describes it as the largest IPO in the history of human capital markets. Fidelity, Robinhood and Charles Schwab have opened retail subscriptions, with 30% of the allocation reserved for individual investors and a minimum entry threshold of $2,000. In practical terms, the article notes, nearly any holder of a U.S. brokerage account can take part.
The timetable is central to the article’s investment framework. June 11 is the IPO pricing date at $135 per share. June 12 is the Nasdaq listing date, with only 3% of the shares freely tradable. In early July, roughly 15 trading days after listing, SpaceX enters the fast-entry window for the Nasdaq 100. In September, its first quarterly report as a public company, covering Q2 2026, is expected to provide the first detailed disclosure of losses in the AI segment. After the Q2 report, the first lock-up release allows certain insiders to sell up to 20% of their holdings. Around December, a larger lock-up expiration is expected, involving early employees, venture capital investors and underwriting banks. In June 2027, Elon Musk’s 366-day lock-up period ends.
Strategy One: Buy on Day One and Bet on a Supply-Demand Imbalance
The most aggressive strategy in the article is to buy on the first trading day. The core wager is that early share supply will be much smaller than demand. The article identifies three structural factors behind that view. First, SpaceX is issuing only about 3% of its shares, while a large portion remains held by insiders and early investors under lock-up arrangements. For a company valued at $1.75 trillion, such a small free float means even moderate buying demand can push prices sharply higher.
Second, the Nasdaq 100 fast-inclusion mechanism can create rule-based demand. Under Nasdaq rules updated in 2024, SpaceX can be added to the Nasdaq 100 as soon as 15 trading days after listing, around early July. If included, passive funds and ETFs tracking the index must buy shares. The article says Morningstar considers SpaceX overvalued by roughly a factor of two, while also acknowledging that this index mechanism can support the stock in the short term. Third, the underwriting group is large and prestigious: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citi and JPMorgan lead a group of 21 participating institutions. The article argues that top global investment banks have both incentives and tools to support an IPO in its early trading phase.
The historical comparison used here is Saudi Aramco. In 2019, Aramco priced its IPO at $25.6 and rose 10% on its first day, reaching the daily limit. But Aramco was listed only on the Saudi domestic exchange, whose liquidity was far below Nasdaq’s. SpaceX, by contrast, would face direct inflows from global capital. The main risk to this strategy is a broad market sell-off during the IPO week, such as one caused by geopolitical shocks or an unexpectedly hawkish Federal Reserve. The article also stresses that the fixed $135 price bypasses the traditional price-range inquiry process. If real demand is lower than expected, there is no pricing buffer.
Strategy Two: Wait for the First Earnings Report
The second approach is to wait until SpaceX files its first quarterly report as a public company, expected in September 2026 and covering Q2 2026. The value of that report, according to the article, is that it will be the first time SpaceX discloses detailed AI-segment losses under public-company reporting standards. The roadshow presentation provides annual aggregate figures, but the quarterly report must break results down by segment. That means investors should receive clearer answers on how much cash xAI burns each quarter, whether Starlink user growth is continuing, and how Grok is progressing with enterprise customers.
The first quarterly report is also the first lock-up release window. SpaceX is using a non-standard staggered lock-up structure. Certain insiders can sell up to 20% of their holdings after the Q2 report is released, much earlier than the standard 180-day unified IPO lock-up period. The article compares this with Uber’s IPO history. Uber listed in May 2019 at $45 per share and closed its first day below the offering price at $41.57. Its real lows came later: $13.71 during the March 2020 pandemic low and around $20 in June 2022. From its IPO to May 2023, Uber underperformed the S&P 500 by 116 percentage points. Since May 2023, however, it has outperformed by 118 percentage points. The article uses this example to show that investors who wait for a more reasonable valuation can end up with better returns.
This strategy is aimed at investors who like SpaceX’s long-term value but are not comfortable with the $1.75 trillion valuation and are willing to trade three months of time for more complete information. Its biggest challenge is FOMO. If the stock rises sharply on day one and continues to strengthen after Nasdaq 100 inclusion, waiting means buying at a higher price.
Strategy Three: Wait for Lock-Up Expirations and Buy Into Selling Pressure
The most patient strategy is to wait for lock-up expirations and look for a better entry price amid insider selling. The article says SpaceX’s lock-up structure deserves close study. Elon Musk is locked up for 366 days, with his shares released in mid-June 2027. Other executives and early investors begin staggered releases after the Q2 report, with full release by the Q2 2027 report. The first larger concentrated release window is expected around December 2026.
A BitMEX trading strategy analysis cited in the article describes that moment as a potential instance of the “largest single-day insider selling event in market history.” Early employees, many of whom have very low cost bases, early venture capital investors and underwriting banks can all become sellers at the same time. If AI losses continue to expand in the Q2 and Q3 reports, the narrative can shift from “AI concept support” to “AI dragging down profit,” which would intensify selling pressure.
The article uses Facebook as the historical reference. Facebook priced its May 2012 IPO at $38. After lock-up expirations, the stock fell to $17.55 in September 2012, more than halving from the offering price. But investors who bought at that low and held until now have earned returns of more than 30 times. The article argues that lows created by lock-up pressure are often attractive entry points for long-term investors. This approach is suited to investors who believe SpaceX’s long-term value is determined by Starlink and are willing to wait six to twelve months for a larger margin of safety. The principal risk is that SpaceX reports results ahead of expectations during the waiting period, such as Starship achieving commercial operations, Starlink users surpassing 15 million, or the AI business unexpectedly turning profitable. In that case, the stock could rise enough before the lock-up expiration that selling pressure would not drag it down. The article also notes that Netflix and Amazon both recovered quickly after their lock-up expirations.
Strategy Four: Avoid SPCX and Buy the “Pick-and-Shovel” Names
The fourth strategy is not to take part directly in the SpaceX IPO trade. Instead, investors can look at companies and vehicles that benefit from the SpaceX ecosystem. On the hardware supply-chain side, the article says SpaceX’s Colossus data center uses Nvidia GB200 and GB300 systems, while Starship avionics and Starlink terminals use large amounts of custom chips. Nvidia (NVDA) is described as the most direct upstream beneficiary. If the Terafab chip factory is implemented, Intel (INTC) would also benefit.
For indirect ETF exposure, the article points to the Cambria ERShares Private Investments ETF (XOVR), which holds a special purpose vehicle linked to SpaceX. As of April 2026, SpaceX exposure reportedly exceeded 40% of the fund’s total positions. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) would also gain exposure automatically after SpaceX is added to the index. This strategy is designed for investors who believe the SpaceX listing will lift the broader space and AI infrastructure sectors but do not want concentrated single-stock exposure at a $1.75 trillion valuation. Its main drawback is that indirect exposure does not necessarily outperform direct ownership. If SpaceX rises substantially after listing, the opportunity cost for investors standing aside can be high.
The article concludes that none of the four strategies is inherently right or wrong. The difference lies in how investors judge two variables: SpaceX’s long-term value and the amount of time the market needs to digest a $1.75 trillion valuation. If Starlink’s growth can support a valuation above $600 billion and the long-dated option value of space computing is truly worth $1 trillion, then a long-term holding argument can be made. If a valuation of 94 times revenue needs time to be absorbed, then lock-up expirations and AI-loss disclosure are visible pressure points. The article states that no one is obligated to make a decision on the first day of the largest IPO in history. It also includes a disclaimer that the analysis represents only the views of Chaoxiang Research and is not investment advice. SpaceX (SPCX) has not yet officially begun trading, and the valuation, pricing and timetable cited are based on public reports and the S-1 filing, with room for change. Investors are advised in the original article to read SpaceX’s prospectus filed with the SEC, understand the risk factors and make independent decisions based on their own finances and risk tolerance. The piece was written by Xiaobing of Chaoxiang Research and published by TechFlowPost, which also lists its Telegram subscription group, official Twitter account and English Twitter account BlockFlow_News.