Chaoxiang Research, writing for TechFlow Selected, frames the upcoming SpaceX listing as a decision with no universal answer. According to the article, SpaceX will list on Nasdaq on June 12 at $135 per share under the ticker SPCX, giving the company a $1.75 trillion valuation. The article describes the offering as the largest IPO in the history of human capital markets. Fidelity, Robinhood and Charles Schwab have opened retail subscriptions, with 30% of the allocation reserved for individual investors and a minimum threshold of $2,000. In practical terms, the article says that almost every holder of a U.S. stock account can take part.
The central question is whether to buy, and when. Rather than present one answer, the source article lays out four clear strategy frameworks that have formed around the IPO. Each has its own logic, wager, historical reference point and risk profile. The four approaches are: buying on the first day of trading, waiting for SpaceX’s first quarterly report as a public company, waiting for lock-up expirations and the selling pressure that can follow, or avoiding SPCX itself and buying the companies and instruments that benefit from the SpaceX ecosystem.
Key dates from pricing to Musk’s lock-up expiration
The timing map is the starting point. On June 11, the IPO is priced at $135 per share. On June 12, SpaceX lists on Nasdaq under SPCX, with only 3% of its shares freely floating. In early July, around 15 trading days after listing, the Nasdaq 100 fast-entry window opens. In September, SpaceX is expected to publish its first quarterly report, covering Q2 2026, and to disclose detailed losses for its AI division for the first time. After the Q2 report, the first lock-up release begins, with some insiders allowed to sell up to 20% of their holdings. In December, a larger lock-up expiration is expected, involving early employees, VC investors and the underwriting syndicate. In June 2027, Elon Musk’s 366-day lock-up expires.
Strategy one: buy on day one and bet on a supply-demand imbalance
The most aggressive strategy is to buy on the first trading day. The core bet is that, in the early phase of the listing, available supply will be far smaller than demand. The source article points to three structural factors behind this view. The first is the very limited float. SpaceX is issuing only about 3% of its shares, while a large amount of equity remains held by insiders and early investors and is still locked up. For a company valued at $1.75 trillion, a 3% free float means that even moderate buying demand can put strong upward pressure on the share price.
The second factor is the Nasdaq 100 fast-inclusion mechanism. Under Nasdaq’s rules updated in 2024, SpaceX can be included in the Nasdaq 100 as soon as 15 trading days after listing, which points to early July. If that happens, passive funds and ETFs tracking the index must buy the stock, creating a defined wave of incremental demand. Morningstar, while saying SpaceX is overvalued by a factor of two, also acknowledges that this mechanism can support the share price in the short term. The third factor is the underwriting group: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citi and JPMorgan lead a 21-institution syndicate. The article notes that top global investment banks have both the incentive and the capacity to support an IPO in its early trading phase.
The historical reference is Saudi Aramco. In 2019, Aramco priced its IPO at $25.6 and rose 10% on the first day, hitting the daily limit. But Aramco listed only on the Saudi domestic exchange, where liquidity was far below that of Nasdaq. SpaceX, by contrast, faces direct inflows from global capital. The main risk for day-one buyers is that if the broader market suffers a systemic decline during IPO week, such as a geopolitical shock or an unexpected hawkish turn from the Federal Reserve, even a strong underwriting syndicate cannot fully block selling pressure. Another risk is the fixed $135 price: by skipping the traditional price-range bookbuilding process, SpaceX has no repricing buffer if actual demand is weaker than expected.
Strategy two: wait for the first earnings report
The second approach is to wait for the first quarterly report. SpaceX’s first report as a public company is expected in September 2026 and will cover Q2 2026. The article says this report matters because it will be the first time SpaceX discloses detailed AI-business losses under public-company reporting standards. The roadshow presentation offered only annual aggregate data, while a quarterly report requires segment-level breakdowns. Questions such as how much xAI burns each quarter, whether Starlink user growth is continuing, and how Grok is progressing with enterprise customers should receive clearer answers in that filing.
The first earnings report is also the first lock-up release window. SpaceX has adopted a non-standard staged unlocking structure. Some insiders can sell up to 20% of their holdings after the Q2 report is released, much earlier than the usual 180-day unified lock-up period in many IPOs. For this strategy, the source article uses Uber as a historical reference. Uber listed in May 2019 at $45, broke below its issue price on the first day and closed at $41.57. Its real lows came later: $13.71 in March 2020 during the pandemic trough, and around $20 in June 2022. From the IPO to May 2023, Uber underperformed the S&P 500 by 116 percentage points. From May 2023 to the present, however, it has outperformed by 118 percentage points. The point in the article is that investors who waited for a more reasonable valuation eventually received better returns.
This strategy is suited to investors who are positive on SpaceX’s long-term value but are not comfortable with a $1.75 trillion valuation, and who are willing to exchange three months of waiting for more complete information. Its main risk is straightforward: if SPCX surges on the first day and continues rising after Nasdaq 100 inclusion, waiting means paying a higher entry price. The article identifies FOMO as the greatest enemy of this strategy.
Strategy three: wait for lock-up pressure and look for a lower entry point
The most patient strategy is to wait for lock-up expirations and attempt to buy during insider selling pressure. The article says SpaceX’s lock-up structure deserves close study. Elon Musk himself is locked for 366 days, with his shares released in mid-June 2027. Other executives and early investors begin staged releases after the Q2 report, and all are unlocked by the Q2 2027 report. The first larger concentrated unlock window is expected around December 2026.
A BitMEX trading strategy analysis cited in the article says this point in time could produce the “largest single-day insider selling event in market history.” Early employees, many of whom have very low cost bases, early VC investors and underwriting banks can all become sellers at the same time. If AI-business losses continue to expand in the Q2 and Q3 reports, the narrative can shift from “AI concept support” to “AI dragging down profits,” adding to selling pressure.
The historical reference is Facebook. Facebook priced its IPO at $38 in May 2012, then fell after lock-up expirations to $17.55 in September 2012, cutting the issue price by more than half. Yet investors who bought at that low and held until now have earned more than 30 times their money. The article’s point is that lows created by lock-up pressure are often the best entry points for long-term investors. This strategy is for investors who believe SpaceX’s long-term value is determined by Starlink and are willing to wait six to 12 months for a larger margin of safety. The risk is that if SpaceX reports results above expectations during the waiting period, such as Starship achieving commercial operations, Starlink users exceeding 15 million, or the AI business unexpectedly turning profitable, the stock can rise before the lock-up expiration to a level where selling pressure struggles to push it down. The article also notes that strong companies do not always fall after lock-ups expire, citing Netflix and Amazon as examples that quickly recovered lost ground after their lock-up expirations.
Strategy four: do not buy SPCX, buy the ‘pick-and-shovel’ names
The fourth approach is not to participate directly in the SpaceX IPO trade, but instead to invest in companies and instruments that benefit from the SpaceX ecosystem with greater certainty. On the hardware supply-chain side, SpaceX’s Colossus data center uses Nvidia GB200 and GB300 systems. Starship avionics systems and Starlink terminals also use large numbers of customized chips. Nvidia, ticker NVDA, is identified as the most direct upstream beneficiary. If the Terafab chip factory is implemented, Intel, ticker INTC, would also benefit.
There are also ETF-based indirect exposure routes. The Cambria ERShares Private Investments ETF, ticker XOVR, holds a SpaceX special-purpose vehicle. As of April 2026, the article says SpaceX exposure reportedly exceeded 40% of the fund’s total position. The Nasdaq 100 ETF, QQQ, would also obtain exposure automatically after SpaceX is included in the index. This strategy is for investors who believe the SpaceX listing will lift the broader space and AI infrastructure sectors, but do not want the concentrated risk of holding a single stock at a $1.75 trillion valuation. The main risk is that returns from indirect exposure will not necessarily exceed the returns from direct ownership. If SpaceX rises sharply after listing, the opportunity cost for bystanders can be high.
Chaoxiang Research’s decision framework
Chaoxiang Research concludes that none of the four strategies is simply right or wrong. The difference lies in how investors judge two variables: SpaceX’s long-term value, and the amount of time the market needs to digest a $1.75 trillion valuation. If investors believe Starlink’s growth can support a valuation above $600 billion and that the long-dated option value of space computing is worth $1 trillion, then the long-term holding case can be made. If investors believe a valuation of 94 times revenue needs time to be absorbed, then lock-up expirations and the disclosure of AI losses are clear pressure points, and waiting for a better entry price is the more rational choice described in the article.
The article also stresses that no one is required to make a decision on the first day of the largest IPO in history. SpaceX will not disappear after June 12. Its rockets will continue to launch, and Starlink’s users will continue to grow. The difference is that waiting gives investors more information and a larger margin of safety. In the article’s wording, the cost of missing one rally in capital markets is almost always smaller than the cost of being trapped at the wrong price.
The original article includes a disclaimer: it represents only the analytical view of Chaoxiang Research and does not constitute investment advice. It also states that SpaceX, SPCX, has not formally begun trading, and that the valuation, pricing and timeline cited are based on public reports and the S-1 filing and can change. Investors are urged to read the prospectus SpaceX filed with the SEC, understand the relevant risk factors, and make independent judgments based on their own financial position and risk tolerance. The source is TechFlow Selected, with the article written by Xiaobing and Chaoxiang Research; it also lists TechFlow’s official community channels, including the Telegram subscription group, Twitter official account, Twitter English account and @BlockFlow_News.