Conflicting reports from major financial publications have produced three different dates for SpaceX’s next share unlock this month: Aug. 12, Aug. 20, and Aug. 21. At Wednesday’s share price, the tranche — up to 319 million shares — is worth about $46 billion.
Three dates circulated this month
CNBC reported that 「On Aug. 20, another 319 million shares could unlock, according to the prospectus.」 Quartz published an earlier date, crediting Barron’s for the view that 「A second release of 319 million shares is scheduled for Aug. 12.」 TechTimes and TradingKey also used Aug. 12.
Motley Fool picked a later date, writing: 「On the 70th calendar day following SpaceX’s debut, which is nine days from now on Aug. 21, another 7% of early release-eligible insider shares are available to be sold.」 A website tracking SpaceX listed the unlock as 「~August 21, 2026,」 a sign of how muddled the schedule has become.
The filing says “up to 319 million shares”
Protos said the prospectus does not describe the tranche as exactly 319 million shares. The filing says 「up to 319 million shares」 and leaves open the possibility of a larger amount because the figure 「excludes shares held by ‘affiliates.’」 The report said it would still use the 319 million-share convention for practical purposes.
Why Aug. 12 is easy to rule out
Of the dates in circulation, Protos said Aug. 12 is the easiest to invalidate. The current number of SPCX shares outstanding is 7.7 billion, unchanged from three days earlier. Major financial websites also agree that SpaceX’s float did not increase by 319 million shares yesterday.
If the unlock had actually taken place on Aug. 12, that change would already be visible in the share count. Protos said it is not.
Protos anchors the count to June 11
That leaves Aug. 20 and Aug. 21 as the main candidates. Protos said SpaceX priced its IPO on the evening of June 11, while Nasdaq trading opened the following morning. The cover of the prospectus reads 「Prospectus Dated June 11, 2026.」
According to the report, every lockup trigger in the document counts from that June 11 date, and the release table places the 319 million-share tranche on the 「70th day after the date of this prospectus.」 On that basis, June 11, 2026 plus 70 days lands on Aug. 20.
The same anchor date also produces later unlock dates of Sept. 9, Oct. 24, and Dec. 8. Protos said those dates appear in the filing as well, which it views as confirmation that June 11 is the correct reference point.
Aug. 21 is close; Aug. 12 is not
Protos said the Aug. 21 camp came relatively close, but the Aug. 12 calls were well off. TradingKey repeated that date anyway, stating that 「Approximately 319 million shares could be released as soon as August 12.」 Asbury Capital, an advisory firm of Steven Engle, also dated the 319 million-share unlock to 「roughly August 12」 in a client-guidance post.
Peter Singlehurst, head of the private companies team at Baillie Gifford, told Bloomberg: 「We’ve never seen anything like it, we’ve never seen anything of this scale, we’ve never seen a lock-up being phased in this way.」 Protos wrote that the structure may be unprecedented, but not unpublished.
Based on that reading of the prospectus, Protos said the SpaceX unlock is due next week.
