Bitcoin may already have set its low for the current market cycle near $59,000, according to Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research. He tied that view to improving investor flows, continued corporate accumulation, and softer macro pressure. At the time of publication, bitcoin was trading at $66,300, up about 1% over the past 24 hours.
Three conditions Kendrick was watching have now appeared
Last Friday, Kendrick told clients that bitcoin’s drop to roughly $59,000 looked like the likely cycle bottom, but he wanted to see three specific developments before gaining stronger conviction: renewed buying from Strategy (MSTR), a return to positive flows in U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, and continued weakness in oil prices. By Monday, all three had taken shape.
Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, said it bought another 1,587 BTC last week. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $86 million in net inflows on Friday after a period marked by notable redemptions. Oil prices also kept moving lower, easing concerns that higher energy costs could feed inflation and push bond yields higher.
ETF flows remain central to the demand picture
Kendrick placed particular weight on the ETF reversal. Since U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, they have become one of the most important sources of demand for the asset. He said last week that the recent selling wave ranked among the sharpest since those products began trading. He also noted an anecdotal market explanation: some investors may have been raising cash to take part in the anticipated SpaceX (SPCX) IPO, though he did not present that as a confirmed driver.
Broader U.S. market conditions have improved
The backdrop for crypto has also turned less restrictive. Last month, easing regulatory barriers for crypto derivatives in the U.S. and growing institutional participation helped support sentiment. Earlier on Monday, Kraken launched perpetual futures for U.S. clients, adding to the list of firms offering the product onshore. Bitcoin has also continued to draw treasury allocations from public companies looking for balance-sheet exposure.
$83,000 is still the level that matters
Kendrick said one major technical test remains. Recent rallies have repeatedly produced lower highs, a pattern that has kept some market participants cautious. To challenge that structure, he said bitcoin needs to break above $83,000, the level reached in early May. That threshold, in his view, is the next key test for whether the current rebound can hold.