Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s Head of Digital Assets, is reassessing his bitcoin forecast from a more bullish angle. The reason is not that he was excessively optimistic before, but that he now believes his prior target may have underestimated the speed and strength of the current move. In a Thursday email to clients, Kendrick said he “apologises” that his USD 120,000 target for Q2 2025 may actually be too low, effectively walking back his earlier expectation that bitcoin would peak around that level during the second quarter of 2025.
This shift is notable because it follows only a short time after his previous call. Just last month, Kendrick argued that bitcoin could reach a new all-time high by mid-year, supported by what he described as a strategic asset reallocation away from U.S. assets, along with accumulation by whales, meaning large holders with significant positions. At the time, that view was already seen as constructive. Now, however, the market’s acceleration has pushed him to rethink not the direction of the move, but the ceiling.
Bitcoin near $100,000 has changed the framing of the target
According to the market update referenced in the article, bitcoin was trading close to the $100,000 mark and had gained more than 3% on the day, reaching $99,293.54. When an asset approaches such a psychologically important threshold this quickly, previously aggressive targets can begin to look less like end points and more like interim markers. That appears to be exactly how Kendrick is reframing his $120,000 call.
His latest comments suggest that the rally has progressed faster than he anticipated. In practical terms, that matters because analysts often revise targets not only when fundamentals change, but when the pace of price discovery reveals stronger-than-expected demand. If bitcoin is already hovering just below six figures, then a move to $120,000 in the same broader cycle no longer looks extraordinary. Instead, it may represent a stepping stone in a larger institutional repricing process.
The dominant bitcoin narrative has shifted again
Kendrick’s most important argument is that the market story around bitcoin has changed once more. In his telling, bitcoin was initially treated primarily as a risk asset, with price action correlated to other speculative or high-volatility segments of the market. It then evolved into a way to position for strategic asset reallocation out of U.S. assets. Now, he says, the market is “all about flows,” and those flows are arriving in multiple forms.
This is a meaningful distinction. A correlation-driven market tends to rise and fall with shifts in broader sentiment. A flow-driven market, by contrast, can sustain momentum if new categories of buyers keep entering through different channels. That would imply a more durable and potentially more powerful foundation for price appreciation, especially if participants are acting from long-term allocation motives rather than short-term trading impulses.
Under this framework, bitcoin is increasingly being judged less as a speculative tech-adjacent trade and more as an emerging macro asset. That transition matters for valuation, portfolio treatment, and the size of capital that may be willing to participate. If institutions begin to treat bitcoin as a strategic allocation rather than a niche speculative position, then the market may be entering a different phase from earlier cycles.
$5.3 billion in U.S. spot ETF inflows highlights institutional demand
To support his updated view, Kendrick pointed to a concrete data point: $5.3 billion in inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs over the last three weeks. That is a substantial figure in a relatively short period and suggests that demand is not isolated to retail enthusiasm. Instead, it points toward sustained institutional interest coming through regulated, widely accessible investment products.
ETF inflows matter for several reasons. First, they create a straightforward route for traditional investors to gain exposure to bitcoin without directly handling wallets, custody, or on-chain infrastructure. Second, continued inflows can tighten the available supply dynamic, especially when fresh demand absorbs coins from the market over time. Third, repeated net inflows reinforce the perception that bitcoin is earning a more established place inside diversified portfolios.
Kendrick sees this process as central to bitcoin’s changing identity. Rather than being viewed only as a volatile speculative asset, bitcoin is increasingly being positioned as a macro asset within global portfolios. That change in perception could support higher valuations, because the buyer base becomes broader, the holding periods become longer, and the reasons for ownership become more strategic.
Institutional examples strengthen the revised thesis
Kendrick also cited several heavyweight examples to illustrate why he believes the current trend has more depth than a short-lived rally. One of them is Strategy, which continues to increase its bitcoin purchases. The company has become one of the clearest corporate symbols of balance-sheet bitcoin adoption, and its repeated buying activity is closely watched by the market as an expression of high-conviction institutional accumulation.
Another example is the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund holding BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF, IBIT. The involvement of a sovereign wealth fund carries symbolic and practical significance. Such institutions are generally associated with long-term capital, strategic allocation decisions, and a relatively high threshold for entering new asset classes. Their participation suggests that bitcoin is moving deeper into the field of global institutional legitimacy.
Kendrick also mentioned reports that the Swiss National Bank holds shares of MSTR. In market practice, MSTR is often treated as a leveraged proxy for bitcoin because of its close relationship to bitcoin exposure and investor expectations. While owning MSTR is not the same as directly holding BTC, the position is still often interpreted as indirect participation in the bitcoin trade. Taken together, these examples support Kendrick’s broader claim that institutional channels are now helping define the market.
From $120,000 in Q2 to a $200,000 year-end outlook
Earlier, Kendrick had said that these supportive factors could push BTC to a fresh all-time high around USD 120,000 in Q2 2025. At that point, the level was framed as a probable high for the period. Now, with bitcoin nearing the six-figure threshold, that same target may no longer represent the top of the move. Instead, it could be only one stage in a broader advance driven by institutional adoption and persistent inflows.
Importantly, Kendrick’s broader bullish framework remains intact. He still points toward a $200,000 year-end forecast, and the latest shift in his language implies that the path toward that level may be stronger than he initially assumed. In other words, the revision is not simply about raising confidence in bitcoin’s momentum; it is about acknowledging that the market structure itself may be changing in ways that justify a larger and faster repricing.
Overall, the message is clear: Kendrick is not retreating from his bitcoin thesis. He is reinforcing it. What has changed is his interpretation of the market’s current engine. With U.S. spot ETF inflows accelerating, corporate buyers remaining active, sovereign-linked capital appearing in the ecosystem, and bitcoin’s narrative moving from risk correlation to capital-flow leadership, the old target of $120,000 now looks less like a cap and more like a checkpoint.