Standard Chartered released a research note on Feb. 12 sharply reducing price targets across major cryptocurrencies, signaling expectations of further downside before a potential rebound. Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research, stated: "I think we are going to see more pain and a final capitulation period for digital asset prices in the next few months." He predicted bitcoin could fall to around $50,000 or just below, with ethereum bottoming near $1,400.
Revised Targets Across the Board
The bank cut its 2026 year-end bitcoin forecast to $100,000 from $150,000 previously, and ethereum to $4,000 from $7,500. XRP was reduced to $2.80 from $8.00, and solana to $135 from $250. For 2027, bitcoin was lowered to $200K from $225K, ether to $10K from $15K, XRP to $7 from $10.40, and solana to $265 from $400. Further out, ethereum targets for 2028 and 2029 were trimmed, while bitcoin's 2028 and 2029 forecasts held at $300K and $400K respectively.
Kendrick described the anticipated lows as entry points: "They will be buy levels, for end year forecasts of USD 100,000 (BTC) and USD 4,000 (ETH)." Long-term 2030 targets were maintained at $500K for bitcoin, $40K for ethereum, $28 for XRP, and $2K for solana, underscoring a constructive multi-year outlook despite near-term reductions.
ETF Selling Pressure and Macro Backdrop
Kendrick attributed the near-term weakness to potential selling by ETF holders: "We think ETF holders are more likely to sell, rather than buy the dip, for now. We therefore see potential for bitcoin to fall to (or just below) a low of USD 50,000 over the next few months." He noted that even at those levels, the drawdown would be smaller than previous crypto sell-offs. Macro conditions are unlikely to improve until Kevin Warsh assumes the Federal Reserve chair in May, after being nominated on Jan. 30. Warsh has signaled support for rate cuts tied to AI-driven productivity gains and a leaner central bank balance sheet.
Kendrick added: "Once the lows have been reached, we expect the asset class to recover for the rest of 2026. This takes our year-end BTC forecast to USD 100,000 (from USD 150,000 previously) and our ETH forecast to USD 4,000 (from USD 7,500)." He said other digital assets will likely follow the majors, with corresponding adjustments to their forecasts. The report maintains a bullish long-term stance despite cutting near-term targets, reflecting Standard Chartered's conviction that the crypto cycle remains intact.