Standard Chartered published its first coverage report on Ethena (ENA) on Sept. 30, with Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, assigning a $2 price target for ENA by the end of 2028.
The call added fresh momentum to the bullish narrative around Ethena. Still, the source article argues that the market is dealing with more than institutional endorsement: the protocol’s buyback mechanism has not yet been triggered, while a large token unlock is only days away.
Standard Chartered’s case for ENA centers on three fundamentals
As outlined in the article, Standard Chartered’s valuation framework for Ethena rests on three main assumptions.
- First, growth in on-chain real-world assets. The bank projects the RWA market on-chain will expand from $40 billion today to $2 trillion by the end of 2028.
- Second, a larger market for yield-bearing stablecoins. The article says yield-bearing stablecoins currently account for 5% of total stablecoin market capitalization, while USDe became the fastest stablecoin in crypto history to reach a $10 billion market cap. On that basis, the report argues USDe is positioned to capture a large share of future growth.
- Third, Ethena’s recently approved tokenomics changes, which are designed to use protocol net revenue to buy back and burn ENA, shifting the token from a governance asset toward one with value-capture features.
The article says that thesis is internally consistent at the macro level and reinforces Ethena’s standing in the yield-bearing stablecoin segment. But it also draws a distinction between a 2028 end-state valuation and the shorter-term conditions facing the secondary market now.
The buyback mechanism has not started because USDe is still below the threshold
One of the main narratives behind ENA’s recent rebound has been the idea that protocol revenue will be used to buy back and burn ENA. The article says that mechanism is not active yet.
Under Ethena’s current rules, the hard trigger for revenue extraction is a USDe circulating supply of $7.5 billion. The source says USDe is currently hovering around $4.9 billion. Until USDe expands by more than 50% and crosses that line, protocol revenue will continue to be distributed mainly to sUSDe stakers and partner channels, rather than creating direct market demand for ENA.
The article also notes that even if USDe eventually exceeds $7.5 billion, buybacks would not begin at full scale. At the first $7.5 billion tier, only 5% of total revenue would be allocated to the foundation, and 95% of that net income would then be used to repurchase ENA.
In that reading, the market’s buyback narrative remains forward-looking rather than operational. The article describes ENA as a governance shell that still does not capture the protocol’s core cash flow, and says there is a gap between how some traders are pricing the token and how the mechanism actually works today.
1.4 billion ENA is set to unlock on Oct. 5
The more immediate variable is token supply.
According to the article, the Ethena Foundation adjusted part of the token structure at the end of August. It bought out some seed-round allocations seen as more likely to be sold and canceled the remaining investors’ original monthly release schedule, concentrating those tokens into a single unlock on Oct. 5.
The market at one point interpreted that move as an early clearing of long-term sell pressure, and the article says it became one of the catalysts behind ENA’s September price rise. But from a trading-structure perspective, the change also concentrated supply into one date.
The article says 1.4 billion ENA, representing about 14% of current circulating supply and worth more than $300 million, will be released that day. Those tokens are attributed to VC and investor allocations. At the same time, the buyback mechanism that could theoretically absorb some of that pressure cannot be activated yet because USDe has not reached the $7.5 billion threshold.
Institutional coverage is in place, but near-term supply remains the market focus
The source article links the recent sequence of events this way: the project first changed unlock rules and concentrated what had been a longer release schedule into Oct. 5; bullish commentary from Arthur Hayes and others helped lift expectations; then Standard Chartered’s initiation report arrived just ahead of the large unlock, adding a heavyweight institutional endorsement to the story.
The article says the report itself is meaningful because it shows Ethena has entered the field of view of mainstream traditional finance. But that endorsement is framed as a long-dated thesis tied to the end of 2028, not proof that near-term spot demand is ready to absorb a large wave of supply.
At prices above $0.25, the article argues, ENA has already priced in a substantial portion of the optimism tied to institutional coverage and future buybacks. Before USDe crosses the $7.5 billion line, and before the market fully digests the 1.4 billion-token unlock scheduled for Oct. 5, short-term trading still faces a direct supply overhang.
