Standard Chartered expects Ethena’s USDe stablecoin supply to reach $40 billion by the end of 2028 and sees ENA rising to $2 over the same period, according to a research report shared with Cointelegraph on Wednesday. The bank’s price target is roughly seven times the $0.28 level cited in the report.
The bank also said USDe could grow slightly faster than the broader stablecoin market through 2028. On that view, ENA would outperform both Bitcoin and Ether over the period. Standard Chartered’s year-end 2028 targets for the two largest cryptocurrencies are $300,000 for BTC and $18,000 for ETH.
Yield expansion sits at the center of the USDe forecast
Standard Chartered said weaker returns from USDe’s traditional crypto basis trade have pushed Ethena to widen its yield sources. That trade involves holding spot crypto while shorting perpetual futures.
According to the report, Ethena has been moving into DeFi, institutional lending, real-world assets, and basis trades tied to equities and commodities. Those sources currently generate a blended yield of 5.2%, which the bank said gives USDe more room to scale.
Standard Chartered also forecasts that the broader tokenized asset market will grow from about $350 billion today to $4 trillion by the end of 2028. That would expand the pool of assets Ethena could use to generate yield.
Cointelegraph also noted in the article that Ethena has launched a USDe payments app offering 6% rewards.
USDe growth and ENA buybacks form the valuation case
Standard Chartered said the connection between USDe growth and ENA buybacks is central to its valuation framework for the token. A fee switch approved by Ethena governance in early September directs 95% of net revenue from Ethena’s business lines to ENA buybacks once USDe reaches specified supply milestones.
At a USDe supply of $25 billion, Ethena estimates the mechanism could produce $375 million in annual ENA buybacks, assuming a 6% gross protocol yield and a 25% net revenue take rate.
Standard Chartered estimates that if USDe reaches $40 billion and ENA’s price does not change, annual buybacks would amount to roughly 23% of ENA’s circulating market capitalization. The bank said that pace would likely be unsustainable, so it expects ENA to rise until buybacks settle at a lower share of market value.
For comparison, the report pointed to Uniswap and said UNI’s annualized buyback rate has stabilized at around 3% to 4% as the token’s price increased.
ENA market data cited in the report
ENA was trading at about $0.27 on Wednesday, up roughly 28% over the past week and 77% over the past month, according to CoinGecko data. The token’s market capitalization stood at about $2.65 billion.
The report was published by Cointelegraph and cites Standard Chartered Research.