Sovereign investment in Bitcoin is accelerating—just not always in the most direct way. In a new report, Standard Chartered Bank says indirect exposure via Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is quietly increasing among government entities, reinforcing the bank’s long-standing price prediction that Bitcoin will reach $500,000 before President Donald Trump leaves office in 2029.
Government Entities Route Through MSTR: A Compliance Channel
According to Q1 13F filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, direct Bitcoin ETF buying slowed—Wisconsin’s state fund exited its entire 3,400 BTC-equivalent IBIT position—while government-linked purchases of MSTR shares rose. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala increased its IBIT exposure to 5,000 BTC equivalent, but Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, says the bigger story is elsewhere. “We believe that in some cases, MSTR holdings by government entities reflect a desire to gain Bitcoin exposure where local regulations do not allow direct BTC holdings,” he said. France and Saudi Arabia took first-time MSTR positions in Q1. Norway’s Government Pension Fund, the Swiss National Bank, and South Korea’s public funds each added exposure equivalent to 700 BTC. U.S. retirement funds in states like California and New York added a combined 1,000 BTC equivalent via MSTR. Kendrick called the trend “very encouraging.”
Institutional Inflows Diversify: From ETFs to MSTR
This isn’t Kendrick’s first bullish call. Last month, he admitted his prior $120K forecast for Q2 2025 was “too low,” citing surging inflows into U.S. spot BTC ETFs—totaling $5.3 billion over just three weeks. At the time, he revised his 2025 year-end target to $200,000. The latest analysis underscores that Bitcoin’s institutional role is evolving beyond tech volatility correlation and is now increasingly seen as a macro hedge. “It is now all about flows,” Kendrick said. “And flows are coming in many forms.” The quarterly 13F data, he noted, is the best test of the thesis that BTC will attract new institutional buyer types as the market matures, helping prices reach $500,000.
Standard Chartered's Bullish Thesis: Liquidity, Institutionalization, and Macro Hedge
Standard Chartered’s report reaffirms its core prediction that Bitcoin will hit $500,000 before President Trump leaves office (January 2029). The thesis hinges on two factors: a wider range of institutional buyers entering via ETFs and MSTR, and portfolio migration from underweight BTC positions to optimal allocations as volatility declines and liquidity improves. Kendrick emphasizes that Bitcoin’s price correlation with institutional inflows is strengthening, and government participation through MSTR fills a compliance gap for direct purchases. Overall, the involvement of sovereign entities and public pension funds diversifies Bitcoin’s institutional base and provides empirical support for the bank’s ongoing bullish outlook.