Oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz is recovering slowly, but a visible gap remains between faster loading activity in Gulf exporting countries and actual crude imports into Asia, leaving doubts over how real the supply recovery is.
Traders currently estimate that about 6 million to 8 million barrels of crude per day are moving through the strait, or roughly half of pre-conflict levels.
Loading activity rises across Gulf producers
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait have all seen a pickup in loading activity in recent days. In Iraq’s case, single-day loading capacity briefly moved above the level seen before the conflict.
Still, some crude cargoes continue to move through transit points such as Sohar in Oman and Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. That means stronger loading volumes do not automatically show that oil has already reached buyers in Asia.
Asian import figures remain weak
According to Kpler data, Asia is expected to import 23.12 million barrels of crude per day in August, about 14% below the 26.91 million barrels per day average recorded in the three months before the conflict.
India’s crude imports in August are projected at just 4.51 million barrels per day. Of that, about 1.45 million barrels per day is expected to come from the Middle East, only half of the pre-conflict average.
Middle Eastern crude arrivals into Asia are estimated at about 11.11 million barrels per day in August. That is higher than July’s 10.76 million barrels per day, but still nearly 30% below the pre-conflict level of 15.82 million barrels per day.
Next few weeks may clarify the picture
The current gap between loading volumes and arrivals may partly reflect shipping delays, according to the analysis cited in the report. Data over the next several weeks will be key to judging whether supply through the Strait of Hormuz has actually recovered.