Veteran market strategist Chris Vermeulen says the rally in gold and silver may not be over yet, but investors should be prepared for a sharp reversal once the final upside burst runs its course. In an interview on The David Lin Report, Vermeulen argued that precious metals are showing many of the classic signs associated with late-stage advances: extreme momentum, crowded positioning, and rising investor euphoria.
His core message was not that the bull move has already ended, but that the current phase may be increasingly dangerous. In his view, markets can become most attractive to late buyers just before they turn. That is why he believes gold and silver could still post fresh highs in the near term while simultaneously carrying elevated downside risk once sentiment shifts.
Silver’s surge and gold’s breakout could mark a final upside phase
Vermeulen described silver as being in a kind of speculative “feeding frenzy” after recently pushing above the psychologically important $100 level. He said that momentum could still carry silver toward roughly $120 to $140 before the move is exhausted. Gold, while less explosive than silver, may also continue to rise as capital rotates out of weakening equities and into perceived safe-haven assets.
According to the figures cited in the interview, gold had already reached $5,315 per ounce as of Jan. 28, 2026, while silver came close to $120 on Jan. 26. Those levels, in Vermeulen’s framework, do not invalidate the bullish trend. Instead, they reinforce his argument that the market could be in its final and most emotionally charged leg higher.
He suggested that this kind of late acceleration often draws in the broadest wave of speculative participation. That dynamic can keep prices climbing for a while, but it can also make the eventual unwind much more severe once confidence fades or liquidity conditions tighten.
Why he sees echoes of 2008, 2020, and 2022
Vermeulen warned that precious metals often behave in two distinct stages during broader market stress. In the early stage of an equity selloff, gold and sometimes silver may benefit as investors move away from risk assets. But if fear intensifies and forced selling begins, even traditional hedges can be liquidated as investors scramble for cash.
He pointed to prior stress periods in 2008, 2020, and 2022 as examples. In those episodes, precious metals initially held up or benefited relative to equities, but later suffered steep declines when margin calls and broad liquidation pressures took hold. Based on those historical comparisons, he said gold has previously fallen by more than 30%, while silver and platinum have dropped by more than 60%.
That historical pattern underpins his current warning. Even if the macro narrative appears supportive for precious metals today, he believes investors should not assume gold and silver are immune to systemic de-risking. In a true liquidity event, assets that can be sold quickly often get sold regardless of their long-term fundamentals.
Crowded positioning and mining-stock behavior raise concern
Another reason for caution, Vermeulen said, is the increasingly crowded nature of the trade. He highlighted the sharp advance in mining stocks, noting that some names have tripled within a year. To him, that degree of enthusiasm suggests speculative appetite may be nearing an extreme rather than just beginning.
He also mentioned the appearance of leveraged exchange-traded products tied to mining shares as a possible late-cycle warning sign. Historically, he said, the arrival and popularity of these kinds of leveraged vehicles has often coincided with frothy market conditions and, in some cases, with important tops.
His concern is therefore not based solely on price levels in gold and silver themselves. It also stems from surrounding behavior across the precious-metals complex: investor excitement, accelerating gains in miners, and the use of leverage to chase returns. In many market cycles, those elements have tended to emerge near the end of strong runs rather than at the beginning.
Broader macro stress could first help metals, then hurt them
Vermeulen’s caution extends beyond precious metals into the wider economy and equity markets. He said AI-linked stocks, especially the so-called “Magnificent Seven”, appear to be forming topping patterns after absorbing massive capital inflows over the past year. He added that financing for data centers is already tightening and that momentum in the AI trade has begun to cool.
In his scenario, a rollover in major equity indices could initially send more capital into precious metals, potentially fueling one final breakout. But if stocks continue to deteriorate and investors lose confidence, the environment could shift from selective risk reduction to broad-based liquidation. At that stage, metals may no longer benefit from safe-haven demand and could instead come under pressure alongside other liquid assets.
This distinction is central to his view. He is not denying that gold can act as a refuge. Rather, he is arguing that during severe market stress, the sequence matters. Safe-haven inflows may dominate first, but forced selling can dominate later.
Defensive positioning and caution on bitcoin
Vermeulen said his firm has already moved into a more defensive stance. Cash levels have been increased to around 30% of portfolios, and the firm has exited technology-heavy exposure such as the Nasdaq-tracking QQQ. He emphasized that this was a recent tactical adjustment rather than a long-standing bearish call, describing his approach as one that follows trend shifts instead of trying to predict exact tops in advance.
He was also cautious on bitcoin. In his view, bitcoin remains vulnerable to sharp downside moves if equities weaken because its price action is heavily influenced by mass psychology and momentum. Once sentiment turns, he said, bitcoin can sell off rapidly, making it riskier than gold during periods of financial stress.
When asked to choose between gold and bitcoin for 2026, Vermeulen said he would favor gold because of its lower volatility and its more established role during times of uncertainty. At the same time, he made clear that he remains constructive on gold over the long term, even if he sees a major correction as increasingly likely after the current run.
Rates risk adds another layer of pressure
Beyond commodities and equities, Vermeulen also highlighted the bond market. He said technical signals suggest the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield could eventually rise toward 8.3%. He did not present that outcome as guaranteed, but argued that such a move would put severe strain on government debt dynamics and on the broader global bond market.
That warning fits with his wider thesis that structural stress is building across multiple asset classes. If yields rise sharply while equities weaken and liquidity conditions deteriorate, markets could enter a far more unstable regime in which volatility spreads quickly from one sector to another.
His bottom line: don’t try to nail the exact top
Despite the cautionary tone, Vermeulen did not say the metals rally is finished. Instead, he framed the current environment as a decision point for investors. His suggestion was not to panic out of positions immediately, but to think in terms of gradually scaling out rather than trying to sell at the exact high.
That approach reflects the uncertainty of late-stage trends. Gold and silver could still climb further in the short run, and momentum may remain powerful for some time. But if his historical comparisons prove relevant, the final phase of the move could be followed by a correction large enough to erase a substantial portion of recent gains.
In that sense, his message was both bullish and defensive: bullish in the very near term because momentum may not yet be exhausted, but defensive in portfolio management because the downside after a peak could be swift and deep. As he put it, there comes a point when investors have to be satisfied with the gains already achieved.