A Polymarket contract asking whether Strategy (MSTR) sold any bitcoin by May 31 has turned into a dispute worth about $79 million. The argument is not about whether the company sold bitcoin at all. It is about which timestamp should control the outcome: the trade date or the disclosure date.
Strategy’s filing states that the company sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31. The document also presents that activity “as of May 31, 2026, 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time,” which places the sale inside the contract window. But the 8-K itself was not filed until June 1, after the market had already closed.
The dispute comes down to one line in the rules
The market asked a narrow question: did Strategy sell any of its bitcoin by 11:59 p.m. ET on May 31? What it did not spell out was whether that meant the sale had to happen by then, or had to be publicly confirmed by then.
That gap has split traders into three camps, reflected in UMA’s voting options. The “Yes” side treats the contract as event-based. In that reading, the sale itself is the key fact, and Strategy’s own filing says those 32 BTC were sold before the deadline.
Three camps, three readings of the same filing
Supporters of a “Yes” resolution also point to the rules naming information from MSTR as the primary source for settlement. Since the company’s disclosure places the transaction within the window, they argue the source document already answers the question. Some also note that Strategy usually reports on a weekly cycle, often on Mondays, which would make late-month sales impossible to confirm before a month-end cutoff.
The “No” camp reads the market differently. Their position is that nothing had confirmed the sale before trading closed, so the contract should settle against the event. Under that view, the market functions more like an announcement-based question than a pure event-based one.
A third group is backing UMA’s P4 option, the “too early” vote. Their case is that the wording was too vague to resolve cleanly before Strategy’s filing appeared on June 1.
The whole fight sits on a simple split in timing: the sale date falls before the deadline, while the filing date falls after it. The final resolution depends on which of those two moments the market decides matters more.