TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza lowered his Bitcoin end-2026 price target to $97,500, down from $140,000, citing recent price weakness. The new target still implies roughly 25% upside from the current $78,000 level. The firm also cut its base-case forecast to $100,000 and sharply reduced its long-term outlook. For Strategy, TD Cowen reduced its price target to $260 from $400, keeping a Buy rating, with the revision driven by the Bitcoin price change rather than any change in Strategy's fundamentals. Additionally, the firm initiated coverage on Strive with a $32 price target, forecasting the company will hold over 27,100 BTC by end-2026, implying about 33% upside. The downgrades reflect the recent correction in Bitcoin, which has seen a maximum drawdown of over 50% from its peak above $126,000, though regulatory clarity and index inclusion remain potential catalysts.
TD Cowen lowered its Bitcoin price target for end-2026 to $97,500, signaling roughly 25% upside from the current price of around $78,000, according to a report by analyst Lance Vitanza on Sept. 2. The firm also cut its base-case forecast for end-2026 to $100,000 from $140,000, and sharply reduced its previously more optimistic long-term expectations.
Vitanza attributed the downgrade to recent weakness in Bitcoin's price, rather than any deterioration in the company or market structure. Bitcoin's current trading range is approximately $58,400 to $78,000, with a maximum drawdown of over 50% from its earlier peak above $126,000, and a monthly decline of more than 20% at one point. TD Cowen still sees regulatory clarity and inclusion in broader indices as potential catalysts for a market recovery.
For Strategy, the firm lowered its price target to $260 from $400, while maintaining a Buy rating. The adjustment follows the Bitcoin price forecast revision, and is not a change in view on Strategy's operational performance or capital structure. TD Cowen also initiated coverage on Strive, estimating the company will accumulate over 27,100 BTC by end-2026, and assigned a $32 price target, implying about 33% upside.
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