TD Cowen Raises Target Price and Bitcoin Forecast
Investment bank TD Cowen has raised its price target for Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) stock from $590 to $680 per share, citing the company's deepening role as a Bitcoin proxy and forecasting a potential surge in BTC prices to $155,000 by December. The research report sets a base-case target of $128,000 for Bitcoin by year-end, with a downside scenario of $55,000. However, the firm's upside forecast of $155,000 could significantly lift Strategy's share price. The company is the world's largest corporate holder of BTC, and its stock has historically tracked closely with Bitcoin's performance.
The report and Strategy's latest purchase came the same day Bitcoin hit a new all-time high, surpassing $123,000, showing the growth and adoption of Bitcoin. TD Cowen's analysts wrote that what started as a defensive strategy to protect reserve asset value has become an opportunistic strategy to accelerate shareholder value creation. Strategy intends to continue acquiring and holding Bitcoins via proceeds of debt and equity offerings.
Strategy's Continuous Accumulation and Holdings
According to a filing on July 14, Strategy purchased an additional 4,225 BTC for $472.5 million at an average price of $111,827 per coin. This brings its total holdings to 601,550 BTC, currently worth approximately $73 billion at spot prices around $121,500. Strategy is the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with total investment of $29.27 billion and a cost basis of $71,268 per BTC, reflecting significant unrealized gains.
The firm expects Strategy to raise $84 billion through its "42/42" plan—an equal mix of debt and equity—to continue acquiring Bitcoin, potentially growing its total holdings to 900,000 BTC by the end of 2027. At the time of publication, Strategy's shares were trading at $448.20, up nearly 3% on the day.
Long-Term Confidence and Institutional Adoption
TD Cowen first highlighted Strategy's Bitcoin strategy back in 2023, calling it a "paradigm shift." At the time, the firm noted that Strategy was using cash from its software business to buy Bitcoin as a long-term move to protect against dollar inflation. They believed Bitcoin's limited supply made it a stronger store of value than fiat or gold, and saw Strategy as a smart way for investors to gain Bitcoin exposure. Today's updated report—with a higher price target and a $155,000 upside forecast for Bitcoin—shows that TD Cowen's long-term confidence hasn't changed.
As institutional adoption accelerates, Strategy's Bitcoin acquisition strategy has become a model for corporate treasuries. TD Cowen also initiated new "buy" ratings on Strategy's trio of preferred shares, highlighting their "compelling income and price appreciation potential with less expected volatility than the common shares or underlying Bitcoin."