TD Cowen this week initiated equity research coverage on three public Bitcoin treasury companies (PBTCs) and one Ethereum digital asset treasury, publishing proprietary valuation models and KPIs specific to the sector. The move marks one of the more concrete steps a major bank has taken to build formal research infrastructure around Bitcoin-focused equities.
The firm’s analysts, led by Lance Vitanza, view Bitcoin as a long-term store of value — framing it in the tradition of digital gold — and project a price of roughly $140,000 by the end of 2026. TD Cowen’s thesis holds that PBTCs, companies that accumulate Bitcoin on their balance sheets and grow holdings on a per-share basis, now constitute a distinct and “investable equity category,” distinct from both spot Bitcoin ETFs and traditional tech stocks.
Nakamoto Receives a Buy Rating
Among the companies covered, Nakamoto Holdings (NASDAQ: NAKA) received a buy rating and a $1.00 price target, compared to its April 8 closing price of $0.21. TD Cowen’s model projects $394 million in Bitcoin gains for fiscal year 2027, applying a 2x multiple to that estimate. Nakamoto differentiates from other PBTCs through minority stakes in international Bitcoin treasury firms — Metaplanet in Japan and Treasury BV in the Netherlands — and operating subsidiaries in media, Bitcoin advocacy, and digital asset management.
“We are initiating coverage of Nakamoto Holdings with a BUY rating and a $1.00 price target. Our PT is based on estimated BTC $ Gain of $394 million for FY27E, a 2x multiple, and a Bitcoin price of ~$140k at Dec-26,” the firm wrote. SharpLink Gaming (SBET) and Strive (ASST) also received Buy ratings, with price targets of $16 and $26, respectively.
Strategy Price Target Lowered, Buy Maintained
On Apr. 9, TD Cowen also cut its price target on Strategy to $350 from $440, citing a lower bitcoin price outlook and a reduced valuation multiple on projected gains, while maintaining a buy rating. The firm lowered its forecast for Strategy’s 2026 bitcoin gains to $7.87 billion from $10.17 billion in 2025. The decision to initiate coverage carries weight beyond the individual ratings. When a bank formalizes research coverage of a new sector, it creates the analytical foundation that supports other business lines — wealth management, investment banking, and enterprise services — in engaging with the category.
TD Cowen’s Stress on This Policy Cycle
TD Cowen has been vocal in recent months about digital assets’ role in the current market cycle, and the April 9 initiations represent the first instance of the firm publishing company-specific models and ratings within the PBTC space. Back in January, the U.S. entered what TD Cowen described as a rare pro-crypto policy window, driven by aligned regulators, political momentum, and a deregulatory push under President Trump’s second term.
The firm expects 2026 reforms to come through agency action — such as SEC exemptions, tokenization initiatives, and expanded banking access — rather than sweeping legislation. It warned, however, that these gains must be finalized quickly or risk being weakened or reversed after the 2028 election.
Bitcoin Magazine is published by BTC Inc, a subsidiary of Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA)