TD Securities said the long-awaited Crypto Clarity Act has only a 25% chance of passing this fall, after last week’s delay pushed the bill beyond the summer timeline.
In a Monday note, the investment bank said the legislation now appears unlikely to pass before the summer, leaving September as the next key window for Senate action. Lawmakers had hoped to move a crucial vote on the crypto market structure bill before a five-week recess, but that plan was disrupted when news emerged last week that the vote would be delayed until after the August break.
Bank sees a harder path in the Senate
TD Securities said the bill is not dead, but that the route ahead is tougher. The firm assigned a 75% probability that the Clarity Act fails to become law this fall.
One outcome the bank described would involve cloture passing at first in September, followed by Republicans blocking Democratic amendments on ethics and anti-money laundering sections. In that case, Democrats could then sink a second cloture vote.
TD Securities added that another likely possibility is that no cloture vote happens at all.
Delay shifts attention to September
Cloture is the Senate’s procedural tool for ending debate on a bill so it can move to a final vote. According to the report, the bill’s vote now has to wait until lawmakers return from the August recess.
The Clarity Act has drawn bipartisan work and passed the House of Representatives last year. Some Republicans, however, have accused Democrats of stalling the legislation. If enacted, the bill would set a federal rulebook for U.S. cryptocurrency markets.
Draft language targets officials’ crypto ties
The latest draft of the Clarity Act began circulating in July. It includes language written by Democrats and Republicans that would bar government officials from promoting crypto or making money from it.
Democrats including Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has criticized the bill from the beginning, have said new legislation would benefit the president and his family.
Support for the measure has come from major financial institutions, not only crypto firms. The backers named in the report include Goldman Sachs, Fidelity, and law enforcement groups.
This story first appeared in Bitcoin Magazine and was written by Mathew Di Salvo.
