BlockBeats reported on Aug. 31, citing TradingBeats, formerly Hyperinsight, that Polymarket trader tetrose kept adding to tail bets on WTI crude hitting $90, $95 and $100 by the end of August during an overnight oil rally.
From 3:35 a.m. to 4:07 a.m. on Aug. 31, as crude surged, the trader completed six consecutive buys and added about $3,182. At the time of execution, market-implied probabilities for the three targets were about 3.63%, 1.50% and 0.70%. Current probabilities stand at 4.5%, 1.6% and 0.5%.
TradingBeats data shows tetrose now has a combined cost basis of about $38,900 across the three Yes positions. Their current value is only about $8,291, leaving the trader with an unrealized loss of about $30,600, or 78.7%. The $95 target alone is down about $26,900.
After oil rose, an address linked to tetrose took profit on 5,349.14 Brent crude long contracts earlier in the day. It then placed a bid for 3,618.13 contracts at $88.7, worth about $320,900, with the plan to reopen a long position after a pullback. The order was not filled because crude kept rising, and it was canceled at 1:22 p.m.
At the same time, the trader’s S&P short opened on Aug. 28 remained fully intact. The address is currently short 274.773 SP500 contracts at 50x cross margin, with position value of about $2.113 million. The average entry is 7759.6, unrealized profit is about $19,200, and a take-profit order covering the full position has been placed at 7600.
Historical records show tetrose has closed 274 outcome positions tied to oil prices and geopolitical themes including Iran and Hormuz. Of those, 150 were profitable and 124 lost money, putting the win rate for profitable positions at about 54.7%. Cumulative realized profit stands at about $641,900.