BitMine chairman Tom Lee said on X that the Federal Reserve is set to release its rate decision at 2:00 on July 30, with markets expecting no change in rates. He added that fed funds futures imply a 32% probability of a rate hike. According to Lee, his team reviewed remarks from 12 voting Fed officials since the June meeting and found that three leaned hawkish and two leaned dovish, while Kevin Warsh had repeatedly taken a more neutral line. Lee also said the Fed could announce a restart of quantitative tightening, or QT. In his view, the current Fed has adopted a newer communication style, leaving the market with limited visibility on the policy path ahead of the meeting. He said that lack of visibility may make the event itself more important for price discovery once the FOMC decision is released. Lee added that stocks could perform better after the announcement, especially given that firms including Citadel had previously called on the Fed to raise rates. He also pointed to Micron, saying AI bottleneck names such as MU may stabilize, with the stock down 41% from its high and trading at a forward P/E of 5.372 versus a long-term average of 6.524.
BitMine chairman Tom Lee said in a post on X that the Federal Reserve will release its rate decision at 2:00 on July 30. Market pricing points to no change in rates, while fed funds futures show a 32% probability of a rate hike.
Lee said his team reviewed comments from 12 voting Federal Reserve officials since the June meeting. Of that group, three were hawkish and two were dovish. Kevin Warsh, he said, has repeatedly signaled a more neutral stance.
Lee added that the Fed may announce a restart of quantitative tightening, or QT. He said the current Fed has adopted a newer style, leaving the market with less visibility on the policy path ahead of the meeting, which he described as an outcome Warsh wants.
He also argued that when visibility is low, the event itself regains visibility. In his view, that could mean a better stock market response after the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, releases its decision, especially after institutions including Citadel had earlier called for the Fed to raise rates.
On individual stocks, Lee said this setup could help stabilize AI bottleneck names such as Micron Technology (MU). He noted that Micron is down 41% from its high. Its forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 5.372, below its long-term average of 6.524. In November last year, that multiple reached 12.628. Lee said the current share price reflects a large amount of pessimism already priced in.
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