Foresight has published a column titled “The Relationship Between Trends and Opportunities,” focusing on how investors should think about opportunity when a new trend takes hold.
The article opens with the author recalling an earlier reference to Dan Bin calling AI an investment opportunity that should not be missed, then linking that thought to a recent piece of market chatter.
Rumors of losses in AI-related holdings
According to the chatter described in the piece, a number of A-share fund managers have recently been anxious in private because a group of AI-related stocks heavily held by their funds fell sharply along with the STAR 50 Index, leaving those positions deeply underwater. The rumor says they have been seeking information in an attempt to judge whether those holdings can recover.
The article says the exact meaning of “a number of” funds is hard to verify. Even so, the author writes that it is believable that some funds were trapped at elevated levels, adding that he had previously received messages from financial institutions promoting newly launched high-tech funds as a hot opportunity that should not be missed.
A test for whether a concentrated position is sound
The column revisits a method of reverse thinking that the author says he has shared before: when a concentrated position drops and the holder is left at a loss over what to do, that alone suggests the position was not dependable in the first place.
Using that standard, the article says many of the funds it describes as “retail investors with more money” were holding positions that, from their own perspective, were not reliable bets.
It then suggests that the main reason for building those positions was probably to prove they would not miss the AI trend.
Trends can create opportunity, but very few winners emerge
The author broadens the discussion from AI to investing more generally. Every time a new technology appears, the public conversation first turns to how it will change daily life, then quickly moves to the wealth-creation opportunities attached to it.
The column says that pattern has repeated itself across the internet, the mobile internet, blockchain, artificial intelligence, and, in the future, perhaps quantum computing and the space economy.
In the author’s view, a new trend can indeed reshape life, rebuild business models, create new ones, and open the door to investment opportunities that did not exist before. Following a trend, in that sense, is an attempt to find new business opportunities in a new field, whether through companies, businesses, or teams that might be worth backing.
What is much harder, the article says, is deciding whether a specific company, business, or team will actually become one of the winners in that new model.
The author makes the point starkly: history has repeatedly shown that 99% of these participants end up as failures, while only 1% or even fewer become the final winners.
Rushing in without analysis looks more like gambling
From there, the article asks whether most investors who rush into a new trend seriously distinguish between that 99% and the eventual 1%. The author says he doubts it.
If they are not making that distinction, what is the real motive? The article answers that the motive is not investment but gambling. These investors are not studying whether the asset they buy will become one of the long-term winners. They are betting that the trend will keep rising after they enter and that they will be able to exit at the right moment, capturing the “opportunity” created by the “trend.”
The piece adds that most ordinary people simply do not have a special ability to predict market swings with that kind of precision.
Watching trends does not mean ignoring fundamentals or price
The author says he increasingly understands why Duan Yongping has said he rarely invests in the primary market or in even earlier-stage markets and prefers to look for targets in the secondary market. As the article interprets it, that choice reflects a desire to invest in a more reliable and more certain way rather than to gamble.
At the same time, the piece does not argue that investors should ignore trends. It says the opposite: people should pay attention to them, because a new trend can bring unprecedented opportunities, and in the face of such opportunities, everyone is on equal footing. No one automatically holds a first-mover advantage. Anyone who captures a real opening may be able to overtake others.
The author says that is exactly what draws many investors, especially newer ones, into these stories.
Still, the article warns that large pitfalls sit alongside that appeal. When investors rush in indiscriminately, ignore fundamentals, skip any analysis of business models, and buy regardless of price, they can easily become trapped. The author says this is one of the risks many investors, especially new ones, most often overlook and most often step into.
The article’s closing warning
The piece ends with a simple challenge for readers: when following a new trend and looking for opportunity, they should ask themselves whether they are acting out of fear of missing out and dreams of overnight wealth, or whether they are seriously looking for opportunities with sound business models and reasonable prices.
The article closes with a disclaimer stating that markets carry risk, investment requires caution, and the piece does not constitute investment advice. Readers should consider whether any opinion, view, or conclusion in the article fits their own circumstances and bear responsibility for their own decisions.