TrendForce said in its latest research that tight DRAM supply is expected to continue through 2027, while uncertainty around the HBM4e validation schedule is pushing AI chipmakers to reconsider the memory stack used in next-generation products. According to the report, Nvidia has been evaluating multiple HBM options for Rubin Ultra since the third quarter of 2026, expanding beyond the original 12-Hi HBM4e design to include 8-Hi HBM4e, 12-Hi HBM4, and 8-Hi HBM4 alternatives, with final specifications still undecided. The firm also noted that Nvidia had already decided to halve SOCAMM capacity in its next-generation Vera Rubin Superchip module because the LPDDR5X supply bottleneck is expected to persist through 2027. TrendForce said the shift away from 12-Hi HBM4e is tied to broader DRAM shortages in 2027, which could constrain wafer allocation to HBM, as well as uncertainty over the mass-production schedule and yield ramp for 12-Hi HBM4e. It expects HBM bit shipments to grow about 50% to 60% year over year in 2027, but still fall short of demand, leaving suppliers with pricing power and likely driving HBM prices sharply higher.
According to a ChainCatcher report citing TrendForce, tight DRAM supply is expected to last through 2027, and uncertainty over the HBM4e validation schedule is pushing AI chipmakers to consider reducing HBM configurations in next-generation products.
TrendForce said Nvidia has been evaluating HBM options for Rubin Ultra since the third quarter of 2026. The company has widened its review from the originally planned 12-Hi HBM4e to several alternatives, including 8-Hi HBM4e, 12-Hi HBM4, and 8-Hi HBM4. The final specification has not been decided.
Earlier, Nvidia had already decided to cut SOCAMM capacity by half for its next-generation Vera Rubin Superchip module, as the LPDDR5X supply bottleneck is expected to continue into 2027.
TrendForce said the main reasons Rubin Ultra may move away from 12-Hi HBM4e are twofold. First, an overall DRAM shortage in 2027 is expected to limit wafer capacity allocation to HBM. Second, both the mass-production timeline and the yield ramp for 12-Hi HBM4e still carry uncertainty.
The research firm expects HBM bit shipment volume to grow about 50% to 60% year over year in 2027, but said that increase would still not be enough to meet demand growth. It added that HBM suppliers are likely to retain pricing power throughout 2027, with HBM prices expected to rise sharply. The final Rubin Ultra configuration will depend on wafer allocation decisions made by memory suppliers.
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