Insider-trading risk is moving to the center of the regulatory debate as prediction markets expand into politics and government decision-making.
U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi said it has identified multiple suspected insider-trading cases and forwarded related leads to federal regulators. Laura Frank, a spokesperson for Kalshi, said the company bans market manipulation and insider trading and has built a trade-surveillance system similar to those used in securities markets.
Kalshi points to two cases that drew attention
Earlier this year, Kalshi said its monitoring system detected unusual trading by former congressman George Santos in markets tied to the U.S. president’s State of the Union address. The company then submitted evidence from its investigation to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC.
Separately, federal agencies are investigating whether former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez used advance knowledge of a Trump speech to trade in related Kalshi markets.
Trump family builds a wider presence in prediction markets
At the same time, the Trump family is accelerating its move into the sector.
Trump Media & Technology Group is developing a prediction market platform called TruthPredict, which would let users trade prediction contracts tied to major events. The company has also launched Truth API, offering Wall Street fast access to content from Truth Social.
Donald Trump Jr. is currently a strategic adviser to Kalshi. His venture firm, 1789 Capital, has also invested in rival platform Polymarket, and he has joined Polymarket’s advisory board.
That leaves the Trump family connected to the two biggest prediction market platforms now in operation, while Trump Media is also building its own prediction-market business.
No public evidence of trading on insider government information
There is currently no public evidence showing that Donald Trump Jr. or the Trump family used insider government information to trade. Even so, the overlap among presidential public information, market trading and family commercial interests is drawing outside scrutiny over potential conflicts of interest and informational advantage.
As of now, representatives for Donald Trump Jr. and Trump Media & Technology Group had not immediately responded to requests for comment.