WuBlockchain’s preview for the week of Sept. 21-27 says markets will be tracking the US-China leaders’ meeting in Washington alongside a set of US and European releases that could shift views on demand, inflation and interest rates.
Sept. 23: Flash PMI readings from Europe and the US
The eurozone is scheduled to release its September flash PMI at 16:00 Beijing time on Wednesday, Sept. 23. The US flash PMI follows at 21:45.
The report said PMI will be one of the first business-activity indicators released after the Federal Reserve’s rate hike. Beyond headline manufacturing and services growth, markets are expected to watch new orders, employment and input prices to judge whether energy and trade costs are pushing up corporate expenses and weighing on demand.
If services stay in expansion and the price components remain elevated, markets may keep pricing in higher rates for longer. If new orders and employment weaken at the same time, that would indicate high rates are starting to feed through to real demand.
Sept. 23: EIA oil inventory data gains importance
At 22:30 Beijing time on Sept. 23, the US will release Energy Information Administration data on crude inventories for the week ended Sept. 18.
WuBlockchain said the release has taken on greater importance against the backdrop of Middle East supply risks and elevated energy prices. Crude, gasoline and distillate inventories, along with refinery utilization, will show whether US stockpiles can cushion global supply pressure.
If crude and refined-product inventories keep falling, that could support oil prices and inflation expectations, lift US Treasury yields and weigh on richly valued technology stocks. A clear rebound in inventories would ease concern over near-term supply tightness.
Sept. 24: Jobless claims to test labor-market resilience
The US will publish weekly initial jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 19 at 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, Sept. 24.
The previous week’s figure fell to 196,000, a sign that layoffs remained limited. This week’s data will test whether high interest rates and energy costs are beginning to pass through to the labor market.
If claims stay near 200,000, that would suggest the labor market still has resilience and markets may continue to hold relatively high rate expectations. A noticeable rise would point to operating pressure reaching hiring and layoff decisions.
Sept. 24-25: US-China leaders meet in Washington
The US and Chinese leaders are set to meet in Washington on Sept. 24 and 25.
According to Reuters, senior economic and trade officials from both countries will discuss AI safety, trade and other economic issues before the leaders’ meeting. WuBlockchain said markets will focus on three specific areas:
- whether tariffs and the trade truce are extended;
- whether restrictions on AI and advanced technology are adjusted;
- whether clearer arrangements emerge for rare-earth magnets and critical mineral supplies.
The report said progress on those points would directly affect the risk premium attached to semiconductors, AI infrastructure and global manufacturing supply chains. If differences persist, policy discounts in technology valuations and capital-expenditure decisions could increase.
Sept. 25: Costco earnings call as a read on consumers and costs
Costco is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year FY2026 results after the US stock market closes, followed by an earnings call at 05:00 Beijing time on Friday, Sept. 25.
Same-store sales, membership renewal rates, e-commerce performance and gross margin will be watched to separate consumer resilience from corporate cost pressure.
If sales continue to grow while margins decline, the report said that would suggest consumer demand has not weakened materially, but Costco is absorbing more energy, tariff and merchandise costs. If traffic, renewal rates and discretionary spending all slow at once, that would be a clearer sign that cooling in US consumption is broadening.
Sept. 25: Consumer sentiment and inflation expectations
The final September reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is due at 22:00 Beijing time on Friday, Sept. 25.
The preliminary reading fell to 47.8, while one-year and long-term inflation expectations rose to 4.6% and 3.4%, respectively. The final release will be watched for two things: whether consumer sentiment is revised lower again, and whether higher energy prices push inflation expectations up further.
WuBlockchain said the first matters for the US consumption outlook, while the second could affect Treasury yields and pricing for the future rate path.
Main theme for the week
In WuBlockchain’s summary, the US-China meeting will determine whether uncertainty around AI, tariffs and rare-earth supply can be reduced, while oil inventories, labor data and Costco’s results will show whether pressure from high oil prices and rate hikes has started to enter the real economy.