Legislative Timeline and Urgency
According to CoinDesk, investment bank Jefferies released a research report stating that the US CLARITY Act still faces major legislative barriers in the Senate, with the next few weeks likely to heighten crypto market volatility. The bill passed the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, but only about 20 legislative days remain before the August congressional recess. Jefferies emphasizes that the Senate still needs to complete bill consolidation, procedural votes, reconciliation with the House version, and submission to the president for signature — a timeline that is extremely tight.
Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing by the end of 2026 has fallen from 70% in mid-May to 48%, reflecting growing pessimism about legislative progress. If the bill cannot move forward before recess, the crypto industry will have to wait until the next session, prolonging the regulatory vacuum.
Market Impact and Sector Divergence
Jefferies believes that if the CLARITY Act passes smoothly, it will establish a clear federal regulatory framework for digital assets, prompting banks, asset managers, and exchanges to accelerate deployment in tokenized assets, custody, staking, and lending. Furthermore, more crypto ETFs and crypto infrastructure IPOs are likely to emerge. If legislation is delayed, regulatory uncertainty will persist, causing traditional financial institutions to slow down blockchain initiatives and weighing on related concept stocks.
The report expects that the legislative process will continue to affect crypto-related stocks such as Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN), and Bullish (BLSH), as well as certain crypto assets. In the short term, policy news flow will be a key driver of price volatility. Long term, Jefferies specifically notes that the greater challenge for stablecoin issuer Circle is not regulatory change but competition from banks, fintechs, and payment companies. This suggests that even after legislation is settled, competitive dynamics within the market ecosystem will still deeply influence the growth trajectory of leading firms.