TechFlowPost’s June 19 edition of “US Stock Market Tide,” written by Chaoxiang Research, framed Thursday’s session around a clear rotation: after the geopolitical premium faded, the market returned leadership to AI chips. The US-Iran interim agreement was formally signed in Geneva, and three Saudi supertankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz on the same day. That development helped offset the hawkish shock from the FOMC, allowing equities to recover much of the previous session’s losses.
Hormuz Reopens as Indices Recover from the FOMC Shock
The major US indices closed broadly higher. The S&P 500 rose 1.08% to 7,500.58, the Nasdaq gained 1.91% to 26,517.93, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.14% to 51,564.70, marking its third record close of the week. The Russell 2000 led the session with a 2.12% gain to 2,979.77. The pattern of gains, moving from small caps to large caps, showed that the rebound was driven mainly by high-beta names that had suffered the heaviest losses in the prior two sessions, while defensive and blue-chip shares lagged.
The US-Iran news had already been largely priced before the opening bell, and the indices moved steadily higher throughout the day. By the close, they had recovered most of the decline triggered by the previous day’s FOMC reaction. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped more than 6% in a single session and set another all-time high, while the S&P 500 rose by more than 1% and the Nasdaq nearly 2%, ending a two-day slide.
Intel’s Foundry Ambitions Drive a Broad Semiconductor Rally
In an early-morning post on Truth Social, Trump confirmed that Apple and Intel had reached a design and foundry cooperation agreement. Under the arrangement described in the source, Intel would initially take on mature-process chips for iPads and older iPhone models, while flagship products would remain supplied by TSMC. The talks had been underway for more than a year. For Intel’s foundry business, the cooperation brings in its most important external customer to date; for Apple, it diversifies reliance on TSMC. Neither company had formally responded, and the market was pricing the directional importance of the development.
The same Trump post also said Nvidia had agreed to produce its first batch of chips at Intel, and that Elon Musk had pledged to jointly build TerraFab, described as the largest wafer fab in history. In that context, the Apple cooperation became the third piece in Intel’s foundry map. Intel closed up about 10.5% at $133.82. Nvidia gained nearly 3%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 6% to a record high. Apple’s plan to raise prices because of higher memory and storage chip costs also benefited the storage chain: SanDisk rose more than 11%, and Micron gained nearly 9%. The entire storage supply chain moved higher, while equipment, memory and compute-related names all participated in the advance. TechFlowPost said this showed that the long-term logic of AI capital expenditure remained intact even after the hawkish dot plot.
SpaceX Falls for a Second Day While Energy Gives Back Geopolitical Gains
SpaceX closed down 3.56% at $185.00, falling for a second consecutive session. Over the two days, the stock lost about 8.3%. Bloomberg reported that the company was preparing to issue at least $20 billion of investment-grade US dollar bonds to repay a bridge loan due in 2027. Concerns about equity dilution, combined with the hawkish FOMC impact, formed the two pressures behind the consecutive declines. Even after the pullback, SpaceX was still up nearly 15% for the week and 37% above its IPO-day issue price, but the source said short-term pressure had not yet disappeared.
Energy was the weakest of the 11 S&P sectors. WTI crude fell about 2% on the day to $74.29 per barrel, a level described as a near three-month low. ExxonMobil and Chevron both declined, while the Dow transport index fell more than 4%. The reopening of Hormuz released the geopolitical premium that had supported the sector. Earlier year-to-date gains of 20% to 40% began to loosen, and energy shifted from the week’s biggest winner to its biggest loser. At the same time, technology, consumer discretionary and industrials led the market higher. Funds moved from defensive and energy names back toward the compute supply chain. Money that had left technology stocks after the FOMC shock partially returned under the support of the geopolitical news.
Volatility Cools as PCE, Flash PMI and Micron Earnings Await
Macro indicators also reflected the change in tone. The VIX dropped 11.06% to 16.40, indicating that the fear triggered by the FOMC had largely faded within one day. The 10-year US Treasury yield edged down to around 4.445%, while the 2-year yield stayed above 4.18%. The market had not withdrawn its pricing of a September rate hike; improved risk appetite had merely suppressed volatility for the moment. Gold fell to $4,210 per ounce, silver also moved lower, and the US Dollar Index slipped slightly while remaining elevated.
Crypto assets did not respond strongly to the easing of geopolitical tension. According to CoinGecko figures cited in the source, Bitcoin closed near $64,026 and Ethereum near $1,734. TechFlowPost said the pressure from hawkish expectations had not yet been removed from the crypto market. Oil, meanwhile, closed at $74.29 per barrel for WTI, reinforcing the reversal in the energy trade.
Looking ahead, PCE data, Flash PMI and Micron’s earnings are scheduled to arrive next week. The source described Micron’s guidance as the most direct barometer for AI compute demand, noting that a below-expectation guidance update in the previous quarter had dragged the entire semiconductor sector sharply lower in one day. The Russell Reconstitution will take effect at next Friday’s close, and mechanical rebalancing flows are expected in the source to sharply increase trading volume and lift small-cap volatility at that time.
In its “Tide View,” Chaoxiang Research summarized Thursday’s rebound as standing on two legs: the US-Iran signing released the geopolitical premium, and chip stocks used actual price gains to confirm that the AI theme remained in place. The source distinguished the duration of the two forces. The geopolitical premium was described as one-off once the agreement was signed and delivered; if Iran reverses course later, the market reaction would be faster and stronger than the first time. The chip logic was described as more durable, because the joint rise in Intel, SanDisk and Micron gave the move supply-chain breadth and showed fundamental support for AI capital-expenditure pricing.
The note also highlighted SpaceX as a new variable. If the $20 billion bond issuance is completed, financing pressure and dilution expectations would become a continuing drag on the share price rather than only a valuation adjustment. Next week’s PCE report was described as the nearest test. If the data again comes in above expectations, the September rate hike shifts from probability to consensus, and Thursday’s rally becomes only a pause for breath. If the data weakens, the market would reprice rate-cut expectations at a faster pace.