July CPI and PPI are set to test whether soft labor data is enough to reshape the Federal Reserve’s stance.
Author: Coinstack
Translated by: TechFlow
Institutional money returned to crypto in force just as U.S. employment data weakened sharply. In Coinstack’s latest weekly market note, spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs drew nearly $1.1 billion in combined inflows, while traders shifted their focus to the July Consumer Price Index due on Aug. 12 and the Producer Price Index due on Aug. 13.
ETF inflows rebound as Bitcoin posts a second straight weekly gain
As of Aug. 11, 2026, the report said Bitcoin closed Sunday at about $64,900, up 2.1% on the week and marking a second consecutive weekly advance.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $853.54 million in net inflows for the week, their strongest weekly showing since April. Spot Ether ETFs brought in another $244.94 million, also a four-month high.
The note also said the U.S. Senate started the first phase of voting on the CLARITY Act on Aug. 8, while Circle confirmed that the Arc public mainnet will launch on Sept. 16 with 11 founding validator nodes.
Weekly open: capital flows and macro expectations were repriced at the same time
Coinstack said spot Bitcoin ETFs logged net inflows on all five trading days of the week, totaling $853.54 million. Ether ETFs added $244.94 million. Together, that made for the strongest combined week of inflows since April.
Then came Friday’s July jobs report. U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, compared with expectations for an increase of about 80,000, a gap of roughly 103,000. June payrolls were revised lower by 37,000. Circle, at the same time, confirmed the Sept. 16 launch date for Arc’s public mainnet and named a validator lineup dominated by traditional financial institutions.
The report said the next major test is inflation data, with markets waiting to see whether fresh macro numbers reinforce the change in policy expectations.
Market dashboard: SOL led majors while XRP lagged
Using data through Aug. 9, 2026 from CoinMarketCap, SoSoValue and Alternative.me, the report identified Solana as the best-performing large-cap token of the week, up 3.7%.
SOL closed Sunday at about $76.21 and extended its rebound from the $70 low, helped by ETF-related flows and firmer network activity.
XRP was the weakest large-cap token, down 5.6% on the week. It fell to about $1.02 and tested the $1.00 level, which the report described as support that had held through prior declines in 2026. Coinstack tied the move to weekly XRP ETF inflows dropping to nearly zero.
The report described weak July payrolls as the week’s core market driver. In its reading, the shift toward easier rate expectations triggered about $1.1 billion in ETF inflows and lifted BTC, ETH and SOL.
Main story: spot ETFs pull in $1.1 billion in one week
What happened
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $853.54 million in net inflows between Aug. 3 and Aug. 7, the largest weekly intake in nearly four months. Every trading day registered positive flows. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for about $693 million, or more than 80% of the total.
Spot Ether ETFs added $244.94 million over the same stretch and extended their net inflow streak to five weeks.
Why it matters
Coinstack said July ended with a single-day net outflow of $265.37 million and concerns around Coldcard custody. The reversal in early August arrived before the weak payroll data was released, which the report said suggested allocators were already pricing in a dovish turn for September.
According to SoSoValue, cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have now surpassed $52.18 billion, while net assets are approaching $80 billion.
What investors are watching
The report said attention should stay on whether flows continue after the Aug. 12 CPI release. If weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows top $500 million again, Coinstack said that would confirm a trend reversal.
Key market developments
July payrolls missed expectations by 103,000, forcing a reset in Fed expectations
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, while markets had expected an increase of about 80,000. June was revised down by 37,000, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%.
Coinstack said the weak payroll print immediately reduced expectations for a September rate hike. The roughly 103,000-job gap between expectations and the reported number reopened the possibility of a policy turn toward easing in September.
The note also said weakening labor conditions undercut the case made by hawkish dissenters on July 29. At the same time, if the miss reflects genuine demand deterioration, corporate earnings guidance could come under pressure and weigh on risk assets before any actual rate cut arrives.
Circle names Arc validators, sets Sept. 16 for mainnet launch
Circle said the Arc public mainnet will go live on Sept. 16 with 11 founding validator nodes: BlackRock, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, Galaxy, Global Payments, Intercontinental Exchange, Mastercard, MoneyGram, SBI Group, Standard Chartered, Sumitomo Group and Visa.
BlackRock plans to deploy its tokenized fund BUIDL on Arc, while DTCC’s tokenization work is scheduled for the second half of 2027. Coinstack described the validator roster as a strong institutional endorsement drawn from the core of settlement, custody and payments in traditional finance.
The report also noted Circle posted $701 million in second-quarter revenue. It added that a centralized validator set concentrates settlement risk, while Ethereum layer-2 networks already offer overlapping infrastructure. In Coinstack’s framing, Arc’s success will depend on whether products such as BUIDL can scale on the network.
CLARITY Act enters first-round Senate voting
The U.S. Senate began the first phase of voting on the CLARITY Act, a market structure reform bill, on Aug. 8. The measure still needs 60 votes to pass.
Coinstack said even procedural progress matters after the Easter period and the July recess. If enacted, the bill would provide operating rules for U.S. crypto companies for the first time.
Still, the 60-vote threshold has not been reached, and the House would still need to reconcile the legislation. If delayed past September, the bill would move into the midterm election cycle.
On-chain data: long-term holders added about 380,000 BTC in 30 days
CryptoQuant’s Smart Money report, published on Aug. 5, said Bitcoin long-term holders accumulated about 380,000 BTC over 30 days, worth about $24.3 billion at current prices.
Excluding whales tied to exchanges and ETF addresses, those holdings recovered from a low of 2.87 million BTC in December 2025 to 3.06 million BTC.
The report said the largest Bitcoin holders resumed net accumulation in March 2026 after eight straight months of distribution, and the pace of buying has continued to accelerate. Exchange balances, at the same time, have kept falling.
Coinstack said historical patterns show long-term holder accumulation often leads a trend reversal by three to four months. Combined with firmer ETF inflows, that points to a shrinking liquid supply available to new buyers.
Narrative watch: rate-cut expectations return
The report said three hawkish Federal Reserve officials opposed a rate increase on July 29. Ten days later, the labor market posted what Coinstack described as the third-largest monthly job loss since the pandemic.
If the Aug. 12 CPI report is soft, or if the next employment report remains weak, Coinstack said the Fed could pivot toward easing without appearing reactive. Historically, the report added, crypto markets often move weeks before an actual policy turn.
That view could fade if the July miss proves to be seasonal noise or if CPI stays hot. In that case, September expectations could shift back in a hawkish direction. The three dissenters, the report noted, have not publicly softened their stance.
Weekly investment theme: the race for an institutional layer-1
Coinstack grouped Arc’s validator lineup, the launches of MSSE and MSOL two weeks earlier, and BUIDL’s expansion across multiple networks into the same trade theme: capital is moving toward blockchains that let regulated custodians and issuers operate natively.
The report said markets should watch Arc’s Sept. 16 launch, BUIDL’s deployment on Arc and DTCC’s 2027 tokenization roadmap. Any additional announcement of a major bank joining as a validator would reinforce the theme.
It also flagged the risks. A centralized validator set carries political fragility inside crypto and legal novelty for traditional finance. A regulatory challenge targeting even one validator could stall the whole network.
How crypto reads interest-rate expectations
Coinstack said fed funds futures reflect the probabilities attached to each Federal Open Market Committee decision. After July payrolls printed a loss of 23,000, the probability of no rate hike in September rose within hours. Bitcoin and Ether both saw buying that same afternoon.
For investors, the report’s broader point was that crypto tends to track rate expectations most closely at policy turning points. When the Fed is on hold, macro data has less pull. When markets are repricing the policy path, crypto often reacts before equities have fully absorbed the data.
Weekly brief
- Russian President Vladimir Putin signed bill No. 1194918-8, establishing federal crypto rules and separating retail and qualified investors.
- A Binance-linked entity filed a $472.8 million claim in Hong Kong against a RedotPay co-founder.
- Cardano and Injective launched the first inter-blockchain communication testnet channel between their ecosystems on Aug. 7.
- Strategy joined the “Invest America Business Commitment,” matching a Treasury Department commitment.
- Stablecoin payments platform Yellow Card said it raised $40 million in strategic funding for global expansion.
Three things to watch through mid-August
Coinstack ended the note with three immediate tests for the market: whether ETF inflows continue after CPI, whether Arc launches on schedule, and whether the Senate makes use of the current window to move the CLARITY Act forward.
The report also said that, according to multiple sources, losses tied to Coldcard had stabilized at about $116 million and had not created further drag on ETFs. Circle, it added, has handed validator seats to core Wall Street settlement institutions.
Coinstack publishes every Tuesday. The newsletter said it does not constitute financial or investment advice, that all information comes from public data, and that readers should verify information independently and conduct their own due diligence. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and investing involves risk.