According to TechFlowPost’s June 19 US market flow note by Chaoxiang Research, Thursday’s session moved away from the geopolitical premium and returned to the AI chip trade. A temporary US-Iran agreement was formally signed in Geneva, and three Saudi supertankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz on the same day. That geopolitical relief outweighed the hawkish shock from the previous FOMC session. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 all rebounded, the Dow posted its third record close of the week, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 6% in a single session to another all-time high. Energy stocks, pressured by the decline in oil prices, were the only losing sector of the day.
Indexes Recovered Most of the FOMC Hit
The S&P 500 closed up 1.08% at 7,500.58, the Nasdaq gained 1.91% to 26,517.93, the Dow rose 0.14% to 51,564.70, and the Russell 2000 led with a 2.12% increase to 2,979.77. Gains weakened as market capitalization rose, while the Dow was almost unchanged. The TechFlowPost note said this showed that the rebound was mainly driven by high-beta names that had suffered the heaviest losses over the prior two days, while defensive and blue-chip areas did not keep pace. The US-Iran news had been largely priced before the open, and the major indexes moved steadily higher throughout the session, recovering most of the prior day’s FOMC-related losses by the close.
Intel, Apple and Nvidia Headlines Supported the Semiconductor Chain
The most important stock-specific developments came from the chip supply chain. Trump confirmed early in the day on Truth Social that Apple and Intel had reached a design and foundry cooperation agreement. The first stage covers mature-node chips for iPads and older iPhone models, while flagship products will remain supplied by TSMC. Talks had been underway for more than a year. For Intel’s foundry business, the agreement brings in a major external customer; for Apple, it reduces dependence on TSMC. Neither company had issued a formal response, and the market was pricing the directional significance of the cooperation.
In the same post, Trump also said Nvidia had agreed to produce its first chips at Intel, while Musk had committed to jointly building TerraFab, described in the source as the largest wafer fab in history. The Apple cooperation became the third piece in Intel’s foundry map. Intel closed up about 10.5% at $133.82. Apple was also said to be planning price increases because of rising memory and storage chip costs. SanDisk rose more than 11%, Micron gained nearly 9%, and the broader storage supply chain benefited. Nvidia rose nearly 3%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index advanced more than 6% to a record high. Equipment, memory and compute-related names moved higher together, and the note said the long-term logic of AI capital expenditure remained intact after the hawkish dot plot was delivered.
SpaceX Fell for a Second Day as Energy Stocks Led Losses
SpaceX closed down 3.56% at $185.00, marking a second consecutive losing session. Its two-day cumulative decline was about 8.3%. Bloomberg reported that the company was preparing to issue at least $20 billion of investment-grade US dollar bonds to repay a bridge loan due in 2027. Concerns over possible equity dilution, combined with the hawkish FOMC impact, created the pressure behind the two-day decline. Even so, SpaceX was still up nearly 15% for the week and 37% above its IPO-day issue price, although the source noted that short-term pressure had not yet faded.
Energy was the weakest of the 11 S&P sectors. WTI crude fell about 2% in one day to $74.29 per barrel, while ExxonMobil and Chevron declined together. The Dow transports index fell more than 4%. The reopening of Hormuz released the accumulated geopolitical premium, and the earlier year-to-date gains of 20% to 40% in energy stocks began to loosen. The sector shifted from the biggest winner of the week to the biggest loser. At the same time, technology, consumer discretionary and industrials led the market. Capital moved from defensive and energy areas back into the compute chain, as money that had left technology stocks after the FOMC shock partially returned on the geopolitical relief.
Volatility Dropped, While Crypto Showed Little Reaction
Across macro assets, the VIX fell 11.06% to 16.40, meaning the fear triggered by the FOMC decision largely faded within a single day. The 10-year US Treasury yield edged down to around 4.445%, while the 2-year yield stayed above 4.18%. The source said the market had not withdrawn its pricing of a September rate hike, but improved risk appetite temporarily suppressed volatility. Gold fell to $4,210 per ounce, silver also moved lower, and the dollar index slipped slightly while remaining elevated.
In crypto markets, CoinGecko data cited by the article showed Bitcoin closing near $64,026 and Ethereum near $1,734. The crypto market did not show a clear response to the geopolitical relief, and the pressure from hawkish expectations remained in place. WTI crude closed at $74.29 per barrel, its lowest level in nearly three months. TechFlowPost also listed next week’s PCE data, Flash PMI, Micron earnings and Russell Reconstitution as the next calendar items. Micron’s guidance was described as the most direct signal for AI compute demand; in the previous quarter, guidance that came in below expectations had dragged the whole semiconductor sector sharply lower in a single day. Russell Reconstitution will take effect at next Friday’s close, and mechanical rebalancing flows are expected in the source to increase trading volume and lift small-cap volatility at that time.
In Chaoxiang Research’s view, Thursday’s rebound had two supports: the US-Iran signing released the geopolitical premium, and chip stocks confirmed that the AI theme remained active. The note separated the durability of the two forces. The geopolitical premium was treated as a one-time release once the agreement was signed, while the chip-stock logic was described as more durable. The linked gains in Intel, SanDisk and Micron showed that the move had supply-chain breadth, and the pricing of AI capital expenditure had fundamental support. For SpaceX, the planned $20 billion bond issuance introduced a new variable: once completed, financing pressure and dilution expectations would become a continuing drag on the stock rather than only a valuation adjustment. The next test identified by the article is PCE. If the data again comes in above expectations, a September rate hike would move from probability to consensus; if the data softens, the market would quickly reprice rate-cut expectations.