Data cited by XWIN Japan shows that in the 12 months following each of the 19 U.S. midterm elections since 1950, the S&P 500 posted gains, with an average increase of 15.4%. The review also says the third year of a presidential term has historically been the strongest. In crypto, Bitcoin rose 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3% in the 12 months after the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterm election cycles, respectively. Still, the data set for Bitcoin is limited to only three observations, which the analysis says is not enough to establish a reliable pattern. It also notes that in the first month after the 2018 election, Bitcoin fell 45.5%. The analysis says investors should watch whether yields stabilize, whether institutional buying continues, and whether regulation makes progress after the midterm outcome is settled. Political tailwinds may help Bitcoin, but a sustained rise would still require supportive market conditions.
BlockBeats reported on Oct. 6, citing statistics from XWIN Japan, that in the 12 months following each of the 19 U.S. midterm elections since 1950, the S&P 500 rose every time, with an average gain of 15.4%. The data also says the third year of a presidential term has historically been the strongest.
Bitcoin rose in all three observed post-midterm periods
In crypto, Bitcoin gained 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3% in the 12 months following the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterm election cycles, respectively. At the same time, the analysis noted that Bitcoin fell 45.5% in the first month after the 2018 election.
Small sample size leaves the pattern unproven
The analysis said the crypto market currently offers only three observations, which is not enough to form a reliable rule. After the midterm result is settled, the report said the key points to watch are whether yields stabilize, whether institutional buying remains in place, and whether regulation shows progress. Political support may help Bitcoin, but any sustained advance would still depend on favorable market conditions.
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