A reported push by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent for Japan to raise interest rates has renewed attention on how traditional monetary policy can be shaped by government pressure and external forces. According to the analysis cited by BlockBeats, the request was aimed at slowing the yen’s continued depreciation. The contrast has drawn fresh focus to Bitcoin, whose monetary policy is set in code, with new issuance following a fixed schedule and halving roughly every four years.
The report also stressed that Bitcoin is not insulated from broader market stress in the near term. If a rate hike in Japan drives a rapid rebound in the yen, long-running low-rate yen-funded carry trades could unwind, triggering selling across stocks, bonds, and crypto assets. That risk has precedent: a Bank of Japan rate hike in August 2024 strengthened the yen and pressured risk assets, including Bitcoin. On the technical side, BTC’s 50-day moving average is still rising and is nearing a move above the 200-day moving average, a setup that could form a golden cross. Even so, the analysis said moving averages are lagging indicators, and the historical forecasting value of the golden cross on its own has been inconsistent.
BlockBeats reported on Sept. 1 that analysis has pointed to renewed attention on Bitcoin’s fixed monetary policy after U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent was reportedly urging Japan to raise interest rates to curb the yen’s continued depreciation.
The comparison centers on how traditional monetary policy can be influenced by governments and outside forces. By contrast, Bitcoin’s monetary policy is preset in code, with new issuance following a fixed schedule and halving roughly every four years, giving it a higher degree of predictability. The analysis added, however, that Bitcoin still has limited ability to avoid shocks from traditional financial markets in the short term.
Rate-hike risk in Japan and pressure on risk assets
If a Japanese rate hike leads to a rapid appreciation in the yen, long-built low-rate yen-funded carry trades could be unwound, which could in turn trigger selling in stocks, bonds, and crypto assets. The analysis pointed to a precedent in August 2024, when a Bank of Japan rate hike strengthened the yen and put pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Technical setup draws attention, but signals remain limited
On the technical side, BTC’s 50-day moving average is continuing to trend higher and is nearing a move above the 200-day moving average, a setup that could produce a golden cross. Even so, the analysis said moving averages are lagging indicators, and the golden cross has had an uneven historical record as a standalone predictive signal.
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