Yen

Japan

2026-09-28 08:01:45

Japanese FX official urges markets to heed clear U.S.-Japan signal on yen

Japan’s top foreign exchange official Atsushi Mimura said markets should take seriously what he described as a "very clear" signal issued by Japan and the United States last week on the yen, saying it showed determination to respond to excessive declines in the currency. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama also said U.S. President Donald Trump voiced concern about yen weakness during a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Mimura added that authorities would closely monitor how markets respond and said he was dissatisfied and uneasy about the yen’s recent moves. The remarks point to heightened official scrutiny of the currency and reinforce the message delivered by Tokyo and Washington in the previous week.

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Bank of Japan

2026-09-28 03:59:28

Japan’s 2-year bond yield nears 2% as bets on further BOJ rate hikes build

Japan’s 2-year government bond yield moved close to the 2% mark on Sept. 28 as investors stepped up bets that the Bank of Japan may raise rates further. The yield, which is highly sensitive to monetary policy expectations, briefly climbed 4 basis points to 1.975% on Monday, its highest level since 1995. Pressure was visible across other maturities as well, with the 5-year Japanese government bond yield rising 3 basis points to 2.43%. In a report, strategists including Nakamu Okumura at SMBC Nikko Securities said trades tied to faster policy tightening by the BOJ were gaining traction as political figures in Japan and overseas paid closer attention to the weak yen. They added that fiscal expansion in major economies and higher commodity prices could strengthen market expectations that Japan will ultimately need tighter monetary policy to curb inflation.

210

yen carry tra

2026-09-21 13:01:04

Yen carry unwind risk eases for now, but US asset weakness remains the main trigger

The Bank of Japan raised rates in September as expected, but the move landed below the market’s more aggressive expectations, easing immediate pressure on global markets. According to the report, that softer-than-feared outcome, together with steady US August nonfarm payrolls and lower oil prices, helped limit the spillover. Asia-Pacific equities rose broadly after the decision, while the yen weakened further once the hike was delivered. The piece argues that a disorderly unwind in yen carry trades still requires three pressures to hit at once: higher yen funding costs, a sharp and rapid rise in the yen that creates foreign-exchange losses, and falling prices for US dollar assets such as Treasuries and equities. For now, those conditions have not aligned. The Bank of Japan remains cautious on the pace of tightening, the US-Japan yield gap is still wide at around 200 basis points in the 10-year tenor, and returns on dollar assets have not deteriorated enough to force broad liquidation. Still, the report says the biggest risk sits on the asset side. If the US economy weakens more than expected and that feeds into a sharp equity pullback or a fast drop in Treasury yields, the income cushion behind carry trades could shrink or disappear. That, combined with rising yen funding costs and FX losses, would be the clearest path to concentrated deleveraging.

490

Bank of Japan

2026-09-18 01:10:05

BOJ rate decision seen tilting toward a hike, while softer guidance could weigh on the yen

The Bank of Japan is set to announce its target rate on Sept. 18, and several institutions are lining up behind the view that a 25-basis-point increase is the most likely outcome. Reuters, citing surveyed economists, said the policy rate is expected to reach 1.5% by the end of March next year and 1.75% in the second quarter of 2027, with most economists seeing the terminal rate at least that high. BNP Paribas expects a move to 1.25% now, followed by additional hikes in December and next March. Goldman Sachs described the decision as effectively locked in and said another increase could come as early as December. TD Securities projected a longer tightening path to 2.25%, while MUFG said markets already expect both a hike and a signal of more to come. Several of those institutions also warned that if the BOJ fails to deliver sufficiently hawkish guidance, the yen could come under pressure, with TD pointing to a possible move into the 157-160 range.

510

Bank of Japan

2026-09-10 09:29:13

BOJ Board Member Says Japan Has Exited Deflation, Warns Faster Rate Hikes May Be Needed

Bank of Japan policy board member Masu Ichigyo said on Thursday, Sept. 10, that Japan is no longer in deflation and that the central bank should move to fix negative real interest rates by continuing to raise policy rates. His remarks came one week before the BOJ’s Sept. 17-18 policy meeting, where overnight index swaps are pricing in roughly a 97% chance of a rate hike, up from 80% two weeks earlier. Markets expect the policy rate to rise from 1.0% to 1.25%. Masu said Japan’s real policy rate remains negative because August core CPI, excluding fresh food, rose 1.8% year over year while the policy rate stands at 1.0%, leaving a real rate of about negative 0.8%. He said rates need to move into the estimated neutral range so the BOJ has room to adjust policy in either direction depending on economic conditions. He also warned that if inflation accelerates from here, the BOJ could be forced to tighten more quickly. The comments have added to moves already visible in the yen and bond market. USD/JPY traded at 153.62, after touching 153.48 on Sept. 8, while Japan’s 10-year government bond yield briefly rose above 3% on Sept. 1 before easing to 2.91%. The report also linked yen strength and higher Japanese rates to crypto carry trade pressure, with Bitcoin at $78,108 and Ethereum at $2,470.

830

Bank of Japan

2026-09-10 08:33:20

BOJ board member calls for prompt rate hikes as markets price in a 25-basis-point move next week

Bank of Japan policy board member Hajime Takata said on Thursday that Japan is no longer in deflation and that the central bank should move quickly to address still-negative real interest rates and keep raising its policy rate. He also warned that if underlying inflation clearly rises above 2%, the BOJ may have to speed up the pace of tightening. Markets are now broadly expecting the BOJ to raise rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% at next week’s policy meeting, with some traders also betting the bank could hint at another increase in October. Expectations for further tightening have also been reinforced by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, who previously said he was “quite familiar” with the BOJ’s next move. In currency and bond markets, the yen has rebounded from a July low near 164 to around 153.5, a six-month high, while Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 3%, the highest level in about three decades.

810

Bessent

2026-09-09 14:39:53

Bessent’s public push for a stronger yen lifts bets on a BOJ rate hike next week

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s public campaign for a stronger yen has added to market expectations that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy. According to the report, Bessent said he had "asymmetric information" about the BOJ’s next move and described himself as "the house." Markets are now pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike next week. His remarks also drew attention to how involved he appears to be in discussions around Japanese economic policymaking. The report did not provide further details beyond those comments, but it framed the episode as a sign that Bessent’s statements are being taken seriously by the market as investors assess the BOJ’s next step.

800

BlackRock

2026-09-09 03:52:45

BlackRock strategist says Japan rate reset is spilling beyond its borders

A BlackRock strategist said the effects of Japan’s rate reset are no longer confined to the domestic market and could ripple into global capital flows. According to the comment cited by ChainCatcher, higher U.S. interest rates may weaken the yen and put pressure on the Bank of Japan to move faster. On the other side, rising rates in Japan could draw more capital back home and reduce demand for U.S. Treasurys. The note also pointed to Japan’s large Treasury holdings as a key transmission channel. Japan holds about $1.1 trillion in U.S. government debt. If 5% of that capital were repatriated to the domestic market, the amount would equal roughly $55 billion. The remark highlights how shifts in Japanese rates may carry consequences well outside Japan, especially for currency markets and cross-border bond allocation.

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