Nine Democratic U.S. senators have sent a letter to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael Selig, demanding a ban on prediction-market event contracts tied to wildfires. In the letter, the lawmakers stated that these contracts could encourage arson, enable insider trading, and jeopardize public safety. They specifically cited Polymarket, which accepted more than $1.2 million in wagers related to the 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires in California. The senators also noted that some newer platforms allow users to bet on wildfires, permitting speculation on destructive events. They argued that the CFTC should impose constraints before next year’s wildfire season gets underway, and that protective measures should be put in place for both U.S.-based and offshore markets. The letter arrives as prediction markets face continued regulatory scrutiny, with separate ongoing cases in Minnesota, Kentucky, and Michigan touching on the division of federal and state regulatory authority.
Nine Democratic U.S. senators have written to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael Selig and want wildfire-linked prediction-market event contracts banned. Their case is blunt: these contracts could encourage arson, open the door to insider trading, and put public safety at risk.
In the letter, the senators pointed to Polymarket, which reportedly took in more than $1.2 million in wagers tied to the 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires in California. And they said some newer platforms let users bet on wildfire events too, turning destructive incidents into something people can speculate on.
The senators pressed the CFTC to clamp down on this kind of betting before the next wildfire season. And they want safeguards added for both U.S.-based and offshore markets.
This push lands as regulatory friction around prediction markets keeps going. Cases in Minnesota, Kentucky, and Michigan have laid bare the strain between federal and state oversight authority.
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