Wall Street firms are expecting U.S. core inflation to ease in September even as higher energy prices lift the headline Consumer Price Index, according to BlockBeats. Estimates cited in the report point to core CPI rising 0.21% month over month, down from 0.29% in August. Headline CPI, by contrast, is projected to increase 0.58% from the previous month, with the annual rate nearing 3.7%.
The median forecast puts September headline CPI at 0.58% month over month and 3.64% year over year. Core CPI is seen at 0.21% on a monthly basis and 2.40% annually. The median estimate for core PCE month-over-month growth is also 0.21%.
Among individual forecasts, Deutsche Bank has the lowest call for core CPI at 0.16% month over month, while Morgan Stanley has the highest estimate for headline CPI at 0.62% month over month. Overall, the market view described in the report is that core inflation pressure may be easing, but rising energy prices could keep headline inflation elevated.
Wall Street firms expect U.S. core CPI growth in September to slow to 0.21% month over month from 0.29% in August, according to a BlockBeats report published on Oct. 12.
At the same time, higher energy prices are expected to push headline CPI up by 0.58% from a month earlier, with the year-over-year rate approaching 3.7%.
The median forecast cited in the report shows headline CPI rising 0.58% month over month and 3.64% year over year in September. Core CPI is projected to increase 0.21% on a monthly basis and 2.40% from a year earlier. The median estimate for core PCE month-over-month growth stands at 0.21%.
Range of institutional forecasts
Deutsche Bank has the lowest forecast among the surveyed institutions for core CPI, at 0.16% month over month. Morgan Stanley has the highest forecast for headline CPI, calling for a 0.62% monthly increase.
Overall, the market expects some easing in core inflation pressure, while rising energy prices may continue to lift headline inflation.
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