The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its September employment report on Friday at 8:30 p.m. Taiwan time. The headline figure is nonfarm payrolls, the monthly count of jobs added outside the farm sector.
Forecasts going into the report are spread unusually wide. FinancialJuice said on Sept. 28 that estimates ranged from 35,000 to 180,000 jobs. That puts the high end at more than five times the low end. Four bank forecasts cited in the report fell between 50,000 and 90,000, with Barclays at the bottom of that range.
Prediction markets are pricing a stronger result than some banks
According to CNBC on Sept. 29, traders on prediction markets are leaning above many bank estimates. On Kalshi, the probability that September job growth exceeds 90,000 was close to 60%, while the chance of a print above 100,000 was around 50%. On Polymarket, the probability of payrolls topping 100,000 was also near 50%.
Both platforms settle against official BLS data. CNBC said prediction market traders were effectively betting that September job growth would come in above economists’ estimates. Even so, Kalshi pricing still implied roughly a 40% chance that payroll growth would land below 90,000.
Two different consensus estimates are in circulation
Consensus forecasts from media surveys are not fully aligned. Bloomberg reporters Vince Golle and Craig Stirling wrote on Sept. 26 that economists expected about 90,000 jobs to be added in September, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, a one-year low. CNBC reporter Davis Giangiulio, citing a Dow Jones survey, put the consensus at 84,000.
The gap between those two surveys is 6,000 jobs. If the official number lands between 84,000 and 90,000, it would come in above the Dow Jones consensus but below the Bloomberg consensus. FinancialJuice also listed 90,000 as the central estimate, with unemployment forecasts ranging from 4.0% to 4.2%.
August offered a reminder of how far forecasts can miss. CNBC reported on Sept. 4 that the Dow Jones consensus for August payrolls was 53,000, while the actual figure came in at 162,000, a difference of nearly 110,000. The official result was about three times the estimate and marked the biggest monthly increase since March. The unemployment rate for August was 4.1%, in line with expectations.
Kiplinger also noted that payroll processor ADP reported only 38,000 private-sector jobs added in August. ADP covers private employment only, while the official nonfarm payroll figure also includes government jobs, so the two series are not directly comparable. The official August payroll number was 162,000.
Four banks all see payroll growth at 90,000 or less
Barclays chief U.S. economist Marc Giannoni expects September payrolls to rise by 50,000, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%. Citing Kiplinger, the report said Giannoni’s running sequence includes a downwardly revised 21,000 increase in July, 162,000 in August, and 50,000 for September. If those figures are not revised again, the three-month average would be about 78,000.
Bank of America expects payroll growth of 60,000, including 50,000 in the private sector. The bank said unusually favorable seasonal factors may have lifted the August figure and could reverse in September. It also said the cancellation of Temporary Protected Status, or TPS, visas could weigh on employment and labor-force participation.
Bank of America expects the unemployment rate to stay at 4.1%, though it said a move up to 4.2% is also possible. Its reasoning is that employment in the household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, jumped in August and may pull back in September. Even so, the bank said underlying job growth remains above 100,000 once short-term distortions are stripped out.
Wells Fargo and Credit Agricole both forecast 90,000, matching the Bloomberg consensus. Wells Fargo pointed to hiring indicators in regional Federal Reserve bank surveys and small-business surveys that were above year-ago levels. It also cited initial jobless claims near multi-decade lows and a slight improvement in job openings.
Credit Agricole said the unemployment rate could rise to 4.2%. Both banks warned that employment in government education could add volatility to the September reading.
Rate outlook for October is also split
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on Sept. 16. Mitrade said on Sept. 28 that the target range for the federal funds rate had moved up to 3.75% to 4.00%. Kiplinger described it as the first rate increase in three years. CNBC said the strong August jobs report gave the Fed more room to focus on inflation.
Mitrade also said Goldman Sachs and Bank of America had shifted to expecting another rate increase at the Oct. 27-28 meeting. CME FedWatch, which derives probabilities from interest-rate futures, showed the odds of an October hike rising from about 53% to a range of 64% to 70%. The probability of at least one more increase by December was about 95%, indicating that markets were close to fully pricing in another move before year-end.
Bank of America and Barclays do not read the October meeting the same way. Bank of America said even a weak September payroll number would not materially change market expectations for an October hike, citing recent comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that the labor market remains resilient. Barclays’ Marc Giannoni, by contrast, said the Fed could stay on hold in October and deliver a 25-basis-point increase in December instead.
ADP report comes first
Before the official payroll release, ADP’s September private employment report is due later tonight, at 8:15 p.m. Taiwan time on Wednesday.
What markets are watching
The September nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for Friday, Oct. 2, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, or 8:30 p.m. in Taiwan. Bloomberg’s survey points to 90,000 jobs added and a 4.1% unemployment rate. With bank forecasts, media consensus estimates, and pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket still pointing in different directions, the market focus is on whether payroll growth clears 100,000 and whether the result shifts expectations for the Fed’s October meeting.