A clear gap has opened between prediction market traders and Wall Street economists ahead of the U.S. September nonfarm payrolls report due later on September 30. Data from Kalshi shows traders are leaning toward a stronger jobs print than major banks are forecasting. The market assigns nearly a 60% chance that September payroll growth will come in above 90,000, and about a 50% chance that the increase will exceed 100,000. Wall Street banks, by contrast, have taken a more cautious view. Goldman Sachs expects nonfarm payrolls to rise by 80,000 in September, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. Bank of America expects payroll growth of just 60,000, including a 50,000 increase in private-sector jobs. The contrast suggests traditional macro forecasters are not broadly betting on a sharp rebound in hiring, while prediction market pricing points to a firmer outcome. The report also arrives as rate expectations remain in flux. After New York Fed President John Williams played down the urgency of further rate hikes on Tuesday, fed funds futures showed the probability of another hike next month falling from about 71% to 50%, making the September jobs report especially important for the current pricing standoff.
Prediction market traders and Wall Street economists are showing sharply different expectations ahead of the U.S. September nonfarm payrolls report.
Kalshi data shows the market sees a nearly 60% chance that September payroll growth will come in above 90,000. The probability that the increase exceeds 100,000 is about 50%.
Wall Street banks are more cautious
Major Wall Street banks have taken a more restrained view of the September jobs report.
Goldman Sachs expects U.S. nonfarm payrolls to increase by 80,000 in September, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. Bank of America expects payroll growth of only 60,000, including a 50,000 gain in private-sector employment.
Those forecasts show Wall Street is not broadly betting on a sharp rebound in September hiring. Some institutions are even looking for job growth to come in well below market consensus.
Payrolls report may shape rate pricing
On Tuesday, after New York Fed President John Williams downplayed the urgency of further rate hikes, fed funds futures showed the market-implied probability of another hike next month falling from about 71% to 50%.
That leaves the September employment report as a potentially important data point in breaking the current standoff in rate pricing.
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