BlockBeats reported on Oct. 2 that the United States will release its September nonfarm payrolls report at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday.
A Reuters survey showed September nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 90,000, well below August’s 162,000 increase. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.1% for a third consecutive month.
Labor market resilience is in focus
After the Federal Reserve carried out its first rate hike in three years in September, the report has become one of the key data points for judging whether the labor market is still resilient and whether another rate increase in October is needed.
Markets are watching more than the headline payroll figure. August employment data came in unexpectedly strong, but some economists said that may have been influenced by seasonal adjustment factors. When the September report is released, August’s gain could be revised lower.
October hike expectations have dropped sharply
Before the September payrolls release, market expectations for another Fed rate hike in October had already fallen sharply. As of Thursday, markets were pricing the probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s Oct. 27-28 meeting at about 28%, down from nearly 69% a week earlier.
That leaves several parts of the report under close watch, not just whether payroll growth meets the 90,000 consensus estimate. Whether the unemployment rate can remain at 4.1%, whether wage growth starts to accelerate again, and whether August’s 162,000 increase is revised down materially will all shape market views on labor market resilience and the Fed’s next policy step.