ETF flows reverse sharply
Just one day after analysts said spot ETF inflows would need to stay strong to lift bitcoin clearly above $87,000, the flow picture swung the other way.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs logged a net outflow of $487.1 million on Wednesday, the largest since June 25, according to SoSoValue data cited by CoinDesk.
Recent flows have been uneven. After about $2.65 billion in net inflows in September, October has posted a net outflow of $165.6 million so far. Over the past six sessions, the funds have flipped back and forth between small inflows and outflows.
CoinDesk’s analysis said Wednesday’s withdrawal was unusually large, coming in about 2.1 standard deviations below the average daily flow of the past 90 days. That average has been roughly $92 million in inflows. The report noted that, in a normal distribution, about 95% of observations fall within two standard deviations of the mean, which makes a bigger move relatively rare.
Year-to-date cushion remains thin
So far this year, the funds have brought in a net $717 million. CoinDesk described that as only a slim buffer above zero, especially after cumulative net flow bottomed at an outflow of $5.76 billion in July.
Since trading began in January 2024, cumulative net inflows have reached $57.33 billion.
Bitcoin hovers near support around $83,000
Bitcoin was trading around $83,000, close to the lower boundary of a floor that has held since the rally stalled on Sept. 21. Analysts have said a sustained break lower would expose $80,000 and break the steady stair-step bullish structure on the daily chart.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email: “The $80.5K-$81.5K range encompasses last month’s local highs and the 50-day moving average. It may not be difficult for the bears to push the price into this area. It is also worth keeping a close eye on whether this attracts bargain hunters or forces buyers with margin positions to capitulate.”
He added: “In the former case, we can expect a rapid retest of the highs; in the latter, a sharp drop, like a high-speed lift, to $76K (recent lows) or $72K (the 200-day MA).”
CoinDesk said volatile Treasuries remain a possible source of pressure. The report also pointed to the risk of an escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran and a resulting spike in oil prices. Against that backdrop, weaker spot ETF inflows could matter more because those flows were a major source of demand during the August-September rally.
Chart level in focus: $80,550
The chart referenced in the report shows bitcoin’s daily candlesticks since July, with the 50-day moving average overlaid in yellow.
BTC is trading near the lower end of the recent consolidation pattern. A downside break would confirm a bearish resolution to that consolidation and could send the price toward the 50-day average at $80,550.
Other market items mentioned by CoinDesk
- CoinDesk reported that bitcoin-backed loans are increasingly being used for tuition and working capital, not only for trading.
- Another CoinDesk item said bitcoin fell below $82,800 as oil jumped after a report that the White House asked the Pentagon for strike options against Iran.
- Reuters reported that the dollar stayed near an 18-month high as bond yields rose and the euro lagged.
- Bloomberg said higher oil prices triggered another round of selling in stocks and bonds.
The newsletter excerpt also listed other live and recent items on CoinDesk, including discussion around “bunker mode” for bitcoin and ether holders, an old bitcoin stash moving after 16 years, pressure on risk assets, Standard Chartered’s plan to expand institutional crypto and RWA custody in Singapore, Greece preparing a 10% capital gains tax on cryptocurrency, Samsung integrating USDC, Deus X Capital shutting down, and Ripple earning fees by financing leveraged stock bets.
Stablecoin report teaser
At the end of the excerpt, CoinDesk highlighted “The Definitive Stablecoin Landscape Series: Asia Pacific,” a report covering stablecoin rules, use cases and RLUSD’s role in the region as regulated finance adoption grows.