TechFlow Selected published the June 19 edition of its US market column, written by Chaoxiang Research. The central line of the report was clear: after the temporary US-Iran agreement was formally signed in Geneva and three Saudi supertankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz on the same day, the geopolitical premium faded and the market handed leadership back to AI chips. The hawkish shock from the FOMC was pushed into the background by the geopolitical relief, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 rebounded. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 6% in a single session and set another record high, while energy was the only major losing sector of the day.
High-beta names drove the rebound
The S&P 500 gained 1.08% to 7,500.58, the Nasdaq rose 1.91% to 26,517.93, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.14% to 51,564.70, and the Russell 2000 led with a 2.12% advance to 2,979.77. Gains narrowed from small caps to large caps, while the Dow was almost flat. In the report’s reading, that pattern showed the rebound was led by the high-beta names that had been hit hardest over the previous two days, rather than by defensive or blue-chip stocks. The US-Iran news had already been priced before the opening bell, and the indices moved steadily higher through the session, recovering most of the prior day’s losses caused by the FOMC shock by the close.
Donald Trump confirmed before dawn on Truth Social that Apple and Intel had reached a design and foundry cooperation arrangement. The initial work covers mature-process chips for iPad and older iPhone models, while flagship products will still be supplied by TSMC. Negotiations had been under way for more than a year. For Intel’s foundry business, the deal brings in its most important external customer; for Apple, it reduces reliance on TSMC. Neither company issued a formal response, and the market was pricing the strategic direction of the cooperation itself.
Intel, memory stocks and Nvidia lifted the semiconductor complex
In the same Truth Social post, Trump also said Nvidia had agreed to produce its first chips at Intel, and that Elon Musk had committed to jointly building TerraFab, described in the source article as the largest wafer fab in history. The Apple cooperation became the third piece of Intel’s foundry map. Intel closed about 10.5% higher at $133.82. Apple’s plan to raise prices due to rising memory and storage chip costs also benefited the storage chain: SanDisk rose more than 11%, and Micron gained nearly 9%. Nvidia advanced almost 3%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed more than 6% to a fresh all-time high. Equipment, memory and compute names all moved higher, and the report said the long-term AI capital expenditure trade remained intact after the hawkish dot plot landed.
SpaceX moved in the opposite direction. The stock fell 3.56% to $185.00, marking its second consecutive down day and bringing its two-day decline to about 8.3%. Bloomberg reported that the company was preparing to issue at least $20 billion of investment-grade dollar bonds to repay a bridge loan maturing in 2027. Concerns about equity dilution, combined with the hawkish FOMC impact, created the double pressure behind the two-day slide. SpaceX was still up nearly 15% for the week and remained 37% above its IPO-day issue price, but the near-term pressure had not cleared.
Oil fell as the Strait of Hormuz reopened
Energy led losses among the 11 S&P sectors. WTI crude fell about 2% on the day to $74.29 per barrel, its lowest level in nearly three months. Exxon Mobil and Chevron both declined, while the Dow Jones Transportation Average fell more than 4%. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz released the geopolitical premium that had supported energy names. Earlier gains of 20% to 40% for the year began to loosen, and the sector shifted from this week’s biggest winner to its biggest loser.
At the sector level, technology, consumer discretionary and industrials rose together. Capital rotated out of defensive stocks and energy and back into the compute chain. Money that had left technology shares after the FOMC shock the day before partially returned as geopolitical conditions improved. The speed of the rotation led the report to argue that this capital had not truly left the market; it had been waiting for a reason to re-enter.
PCE, Flash PMI and Micron earnings come next
Across macro assets, the VIX dropped 11.06% to 16.40, showing that the fear triggered by the FOMC largely faded within a day. The 10-year US Treasury yield edged down to around 4.445%, while the 2-year yield remained above 4.18%. The market did not remove its pricing for a September rate hike; improved risk appetite simply held down volatility for the moment. Gold fell to $4,210 per ounce, silver also moved lower, and the US dollar index slipped slightly while staying at an elevated level. CoinGecko data showed Bitcoin closing near $64,026 and Ether near $1,734. The crypto market did not show a clear reaction to the geopolitical relief, and pressure from hawkish expectations remained in place. WTI’s close at $74.29 per barrel marked a near three-month low.
Next week, PCE data, Flash PMI and Micron’s earnings will arrive in sequence. The source report described Micron’s guidance as the most direct barometer for AI compute demand. In the previous quarter, guidance that came in below expectations dragged the entire semiconductor sector sharply lower in a single session. Russell Reconstitution will take effect at next Friday’s close, and mechanical rebalancing flows will significantly increase trading volume. Small-cap volatility will rise at that time.
Chaoxiang Research framed Thursday’s rebound as standing on two legs: the US-Iran signing released the geopolitical premium, and the chip stocks confirmed through actual gains that the AI theme remained in place. Both lines of logic worked, but their duration differed. The geopolitical premium was a one-time event that was largely realized once the agreement was signed. If Iran reverses course later, the report said the market would react faster and more sharply than it did the first time. The chip-stock logic was more durable, as the joint rise in Intel, SanDisk and Micron showed that the day’s move had supply-chain breadth and that pricing of AI capital expenditure had fundamental support. For SpaceX, the two-day decline introduced a new variable: once the $20 billion bond issuance is completed, financing pressure and dilution expectations will become a continuing weight on the share price, not merely a valuation adjustment. The next test is PCE. If the data again comes in above expectations, a September rate hike will move from probability to consensus, and Thursday’s rebound will be only a pause for breath. If the data softens, the report said the market will reprice rate-cut expectations very quickly.