BlockBeats reported on Oct. 3, citing The Wall Street Journal, that data from Goldman Sachs and other institutions shows a sharp shift in CTA positioning in U.S. equities.
According to Rubner research, the positioning Z-score fell from +2.35 at the end of August to -0.80, a swing of more than three standard deviations within one month. The move suggests that previously built-up long exposure has been largely cleared.
At the same time, U.S. companies have authorized about $1.3 trillion in stock buybacks this year. Some of those programs are expected to restart after Oct. 15 as third-quarter earnings blackout periods end. Historical data shows buyback activity usually increases further in November.
On seasonality, Rubner data shows that since 1930, the S&P 500 has posted an average fourth-quarter gain of 5.6% in U.S. midterm election years, above the 2.9% average for all years in the fourth quarter.
In technology shares, Nasdaq 100 futures are nearing the key resistance level of 31,200. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has broken through short-term resistance and is approaching historical highs.
Goldman Sachs said bond issuance by hyperscale cloud companies could reach $420 billion by 2027, while interest expense would still account for a relatively low share of earnings. Morgan Stanley data shows those companies have net leverage of about 0.4x, with cash equal to 132% of debt.
Goldman also said pricing expectations for traditional memory and HBM, which had previously been revised down, are starting to recover. JPMorgan said the earnings outlook for semiconductor hardware remains relatively solid, while demand for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. AI accelerators stays strong.
Another major variable for the fourth quarter is crude oil. Goldman said the global oil inventory cushion has thinned materially, and a $100 oil price is not inconsistent with the current supply-demand balance.