BlockBeats reported on Aug. 14, citing TradingBeats, formerly Hyperinsight, that trader 「Valen9」 is still holding a nearly $1 million WTI crude oil short on Hyperliquid despite the day’s rise in tensions. Across platforms, the trader’s positioning still points to the same core view: easing geopolitical risk and a retreat in crude’s risk premium.
A 14x full-position WTI short remains open on Hyperliquid
Valen9 is currently short about 12,100 WTI crude contracts with 14x full-position leverage. The position is worth about $975,800, with an average entry price of $81.10. It is showing roughly $6,376 in unrealized profit, or +9.1%.
A partial take-profit order has been placed at $73.10.
TradingBeats data shows that Valen9’s historical contract trading includes eight rounds of WTI crude trades and one S&P 500 trade, with a total contract return of 72%.
Iran-related Polymarket bets were adjusted again today
Beyond the perpetuals position, Valen9 also adjusted Iran-linked prediction market exposure on Polymarket today. The trader broke down a broader geopolitical position into three more specific easing paths tied to airspace, a ceasefire, and a blockade.
- $2,070 was allocated to the market on whether Iran will not fully close its airspace before the end of the year.
- $972 was allocated to the market on whether an Israel-Iran ceasefire will last through year-end.
- $337.8 was allocated to the market on whether the United States will end its blockade of Iran before Aug. 22.
Those trades added about $3,380 in new exposure in total.
At the same time, Valen9 sold 2,591.1 shares of 「No」 in the market asking whether the United States will invade Iran before 2027, taking partial profit.
Most Polymarket exposure is still concentrated in geopolitics
Valen9 currently holds 70 active positions on Polymarket worth about $637,000. Of those, 46 are concentrated in geopolitics, with a combined value of about $365,200.
The trader’s largest single geopolitical position remains 「No」 shares in the market on whether the United States will invade Iran before 2027, valued at about $68,000.
While the underlying assets traded on Hyperliquid and Polymarket are different, TradingBeats said the logic behind both sides of the positioning is largely consistent.
Past geopolitical prediction trading record
In earlier trading, Valen9 has already closed 469 geopolitical prediction positions. Of those, 281 were winners and 188 were losers, giving the trader a win rate of about 59.9% and cumulative realized profit of about $134,100. Current prediction market exposure remains concentrated in this segment.
BlockBeats also noted that the on-chain perpetuals and address analytics tool TradingBeats is now live, allowing users to view Hyperliquid data in real time and track whale activity through address-level analysis.