VanEck said Bitcoin’s nearly 11-month pullback may be approaching its final phase, with the market potentially moving into accumulation. The firm’s researchers, including senior investment analyst Patrick Bush and head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel, said 8 of the 12 indicators in its "Bitcoin Capitulation Check" are now in capitulation territory. Over the past three months, all 12 metrics briefly fell into that zone at one point.
The researchers said those readings suggest the market has already gone through a phase resembling "Bitcoin price capitulation" and may now be close to, or already entering, an accumulation period. As of Tuesday, Bitcoin was trading around $64,700. Since early June, it has largely moved within a $58,000 to $66,500 range and remains about 48% below its record high of roughly $126,300 set in October 2025.
At the same time, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs just posted their strongest single-day inflow since early May, offering some support to the market. Still, long-term holders sold about 356,000 BTC over the past month, pushing their share of held supply below 60%, a sign that market structure remains in a rebalancing phase.
VanEck said Bitcoin’s nearly 11-month pullback may be nearing its end, with the market potentially shifting into an accumulation phase.
Researchers at the firm, including senior investment analyst Patrick Bush and head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel, said 8 of the 12 indicators in its "Bitcoin Capitulation Check" are currently in capitulation territory. Over the past three months, all 12 indicators briefly dropped into that range at one point.
The researchers said the readings suggest the market has already passed through a phase resembling "Bitcoin price capitulation" and may now be approaching, or may already have entered, an accumulation period.
Bitcoin remains range-bound
As of Tuesday, Bitcoin was trading at about $64,700. Since early June, it has largely stayed within a $58,000 to $66,500 range, and it remains about 48% below its all-time high of roughly $126,300 reached in October 2025.
ETF inflows offer support, but holder distribution is still shifting
At the same time, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs just recorded their strongest single-day inflow since early May, giving the market some support.
Still, long-term holders sold about 356,000 BTC over the past month, bringing their share of held supply to below 60%. That indicates market structure is still in a rebalancing phase.
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