Negative Funding Rate: A Historic Bullish Signal
VanEck's latest report points to constructive on-chain and derivatives data for Bitcoin. As US-Iran tensions eased, realized volatility fell from about 56% to 41%, while the 7-day average funding rate dropped to roughly -1.8%, its lowest level since 2023 and in the 10th percentile of readings since late 2020.
Historically, negative funding has been associated with strong forward returns. Since 2020, Bitcoin's average 30-day return during negative funding periods has been 11.5%, compared with 4.5% across all periods, with a 77% hit rate for positive performance. When annualized funding sank below -5%, subsequent 30-day returns averaged 19.4%, and 180-day returns reached 70%. VanEck reports that 19 of the top 50 180-day return windows since 2020 began on days with negative funding, despite such periods representing only about 13.6% of the sample.
Hash Rate Decline: Historical Playbook Points Higher
On the mining side, the 30-day moving average hash rate has fallen to the 16th percentile over 30 days and the 9th percentile over 90 days, with difficulty sliding to the 5th and 6th percentiles. Three sustained hash rate decline episodes have appeared since December 2025, the densest cluster since China's 2021 mining ban. The latest drawdown of about 6.7% ended on April 15, 2026.
Across seven completed historical drawdowns, Bitcoin was higher 90 days later in six cases, with a median gain of 37.7% and a median gain of 63.1% over 180 days. Mining pressure often signals a market bottom.
Derivatives and On-Chain Activity: Caution Without Capitulation
Derivatives and on-chain activity reflect guarded sentiment. Put premiums relative to spot volume are more than six times their April 2024 level, while active supply over the last 180 days slipped to 28.4%, signaling greater holder dormancy. Long-tenured cohorts (7-10 years and 10+ years) increased spent volume to the 85th and 90th percentiles, but VanEck stresses such movements do not always represent outright selling.
Taken together, VanEck concludes that negative funding and hash rate stress form a reinforced bullish backdrop for Bitcoin. The analysts wrote: 'Both mining rate drawdowns and negative funding rates have been associated with strong forward BTC returns. As such, we have become increasingly bullish on bitcoin.'