According to the latest market analysis from CryptoComLearn, Daniel Yan, co-founder of crypto investment firm Kryptanium Capital, has issued a warning: a notable divergence between the VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) and Brent crude oil futures could signal a third major volatility shock for global markets.
Cause of Divergence: S&P 500's 'False Resilience'
Yan attributes the divergence primarily to the unexpected resilience of the S&P 500 index. Despite persistent geopolitical risks and inflation pressures, the U.S. equity benchmark has shown above-average risk tolerance, causing the VIX (which typically correlates with equity fear) to decouple from Brent crude (highly sensitive to geopolitical turmoil). Historically, such decoupling points to extreme market sentiment distortion, often leading to sharp volatility spikes once a correction triggers.
Recalling the First Two Shocks
Yan noted that global macro markets have already experienced two clear volatility shocks this year — one at the end of January (U.S. CPI surprise triggering bond sell-off) and another in February (Treasury yield spike and BOJ policy shift causing cross-asset contagion). He warns that if the current trend persists, a third shock could be imminent, and due to fat-tail distribution, its impact on high-beta assets like cryptocurrencies could be more severe.
Potential Impact on Crypto
For crypto investors, macro volatility shocks typically mean liquidity contraction and sharp risk-off moves. Bitcoin often faces initial selling pressure but may later attract safe-haven demand. However, Brent crude's trajectory also indirectly influences mining costs; should energy prices swing drastically amid the shock, the effect could propagate to the crypto mining ecosystem. Yan advises traders to closely monitor the VIX-crude spread realignment and whether the S&P 500 can hold support.
Moreover, other global signals are already flashing: U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and equities show the largest divergence since 1999; the S&P 500's negative correlation with Treasuries has weakened sharply; and the Nikkei 225's record high is clouded by accumulating external risks. In sum, markets are in a highly sensitive state, and any trigger event could set off a chain reaction.