Whale trader pairs nearly $15.9 million in Hyperliquid shorts with Polymarket hedges

News Editor

2026-08-18 08:48:35

Monitoring data from TradingBeats, formerly Hyperinsight, shows that trader 「LucasMeow」 is running a sizable bearish book across platforms. On Hyperliquid, the account holds roughly $15.889 million in combined BTC and ETH short positions, including a 100 BTC short opened with 40x cross leverage and a 5,000 ETH short opened with 25x cross leverage. The two positions are currently showing about $503,000 in unrealized profit while using around $539,000 in margin. On Polymarket, the same trader has deployed about $466,700 across eight prediction positions described as a form of insurance for the shorts. Those include wagers that BTC will not fall into six lower price bands between $15,000 and $45,000 this year, that ETH will not drop to $800, and that Satoshi Nakamoto will not move BTC this year. TradingBeats said the maximum profit from those prediction positions is only about $50,800 even if they all settle in the trader’s favor, despite the capital committed being equal to 86.5% of the current margin used by the shorts. Under a static calculation cited by TradingBeats, if BTC rises to $96,715.7 and ETH rises to $2,542.59, the liquidation impact on the two short positions would total about $5.993 million. The trader also still has two non-reduce-only BTC sell orders at $62,277 and $61,500, intending to add another 125 BTC in shorts worth roughly $7.715 million notionally.

TradingBeats, formerly Hyperinsight, said on Aug. 18 that trader 「LucasMeow」 is holding about $15.889 million in combined BTC and ETH short positions on Hyperliquid while also putting about $466,700 into Polymarket as a cross-platform form of insurance for the bearish exposure.

The Hyperliquid book includes a 100 BTC short opened with 40x cross leverage, with a position value of about $6.412 million, and a 5,000 ETH short opened with 25x cross leverage, valued at about $9.477 million. Together, the two shorts are showing roughly $503,000 in unrealized profit and are using about $539,000 in margin.

Eight prediction positions on Polymarket

On Polymarket, the trader has committed about $104,000 to bets that BTC will not fall into six lower price bands between $15,000 and $45,000 this year. Another roughly $48,200 was allocated to a wager that ETH will not drop to $800 this year, and about $314,500 was placed on a bet that Satoshi Nakamoto will not move BTC this year.

Those eight prediction positions carry a combined cost of around $466,700, equivalent to 86.5% of the margin currently tied up in the two short positions. TradingBeats said the positions were opened in high-probability No markets, which means that even if every one of them settles in the trader’s favor, the maximum combined profit would be only about $50,800.

Static liquidation comparison

TradingBeats also provided a static calculation for the downside of the short book. If BTC rises from the average entry price to its liquidation level of $96,715.7, and if ETH rises to its liquidation price of $2,542.59, the two shorts together would be liquidated for about $5.993 million. By comparison, the maximum profit from the prediction positions would amount to about 0.85% of that figure.

Trader still has additional BTC short orders resting

At the same time, 「LucasMeow」 still has two non-reduce-only BTC sell orders resting at $62,277 and $61,500, with plans to add another 125 BTC in shorts. The notional value of those additional orders is about $7.715 million, pointing to a continued bearish stance overall.

TradingBeats added that its on-chain perpetuals and address analysis tool is now live, allowing users to track Hyperliquid data in real time and review whale activity through address-based analysis.

This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan.

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