BlockBeats reported on Aug. 25 that whale trader "Set 10 Big Goals First" published a long post laying out his view on the market and explaining why he had identified the area around $58,000 as the bottom of this cycle for Bitcoin.
According to the post, he had already made that call last month, and said one signal that many people may have overlooked at the time came from Strategy.
Why Strategy stood out in his framework
The trader said the issue looks different from an operator’s perspective. In a bear market, Strategy would not only need to think about whether BTC could rise, but also where the bottom actually was, how far the company remained from its own survival line, and whether its capital structure could withstand another extreme drop.
He argued that if there was still room before reaching a real breaking point, it would make more sense to expose risk earlier than to wait until the market forced a response at the last moment. On that basis, he treated Strategy’s move to adjust its BTC and U.S. dollar reserves and optimize its capital structure as a major signal, because it broke the market’s expectation that the company would only buy and never sell.
He also stressed that this was not meant to suggest Michael Saylor had publicly said he wanted to test Bitcoin’s bottom. "Saylor did not," he wrote, adding that this was his own inference from the viewpoint of a decision-maker and that the market later provided the answer.
Why he sees $58,000 as the bottom area
In his telling, after the "buy-only, never-sell" expectation was broken, BTC fell to $58,000. Even after that, negative factors strong enough to hurt market confidence, including hardware wallet security issues, were layered on top, yet $60,000 was ultimately held.
He described that sequence as a pressure test and said it was the basis for his conclusion that $58,000 marked the bottom, rather than a justification added after the rebound.
What he is watching now
The trader said he is now focused on a different question: if Strategy starts buying continuously again, could that become a signal for bulls to act?
He said it would not be a buy button by itself, but he would treat it as a high-weight signal. In his view, the actions of someone who has gone through a pressure test, knows where the limits of the capital structure are, and then commits fresh capital again are more worth studying than most market commentary made only in words.
He added that people are free to disagree with Saylor. But if someone believes they are necessarily smarter than people who deal every day with capital markets, financing structures and positions worth billions of dollars, he said they should first ask where that confidence comes from. In the end, he wrote, the market only recognizes real money.