On Sept. 10, BlockBeats, citing U.S. officials, reported that senior aides including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio had discussed a possible scenario with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office and the Situation Room: even if the United States keeps its blockade in place and continues military operations, Tehran may still choose to resist, allowing the conflict to last beyond January 2029, after Trump’s term ends.
That internal view differs sharply from Trump’s public comments on Wednesday. He said the war would end "immediately" after the November midterm elections because Iran "can’t hold on any longer."
Internal assessment diverges from Trump’s public stance
According to the report, Vance had already signaled last week that the conflict could become prolonged. He said he did not know when hostilities would end and declined to offer what he called an "artificial timetable" that Iran could use to its advantage.
The conflict has now entered its seventh month and has killed 18 service members.
Signs of preparation for a longer campaign are increasing
The report said signs of planning for a sustained operation are growing. Treasury Secretary Bessent described the maritime blockade and sanctions strategy as an "economic orphan operation," framing it as an alternative to a large-scale military campaign.
Defense Secretary Hegseth has extended some U.S. troop deployments in the Middle East through 2027. The Pentagon is also planning to extend air defense deployments with no fixed withdrawal date, while the 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force is preparing to head to the region this fall.
Experts say a maritime blockade is unlikely to produce quick results
Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert at the Brookings Institution, said a maritime blockade would be unlikely to produce decisive results in the near term or even the medium term, and that its only realistic application would have to rest on a long siege plan.
Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said Washington can keep up pressure on Iran at a manageable cost, while Tehran can shift much of the pain onto its own population. "Everyone pays a price, but the leadership on both sides still has not paid a high enough price to accept the other side’s terms," he said.