Wintermute said risk assets kept rising last week even after the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5%, a level not seen since 2007, with no clear flight-to-safety move showing up across markets. Crypto assets led the advance, with altcoins up about 5%, followed by BTC, while the Nasdaq also posted gains and long-dated U.S. Treasuries with maturities above 20 years were the weakest segment.
In the firm’s view, oil prices are now the main variable for October rate-hike expectations. It said crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain well below pre-conflict levels, while Brent crude is trading near $103 a barrel. If oil stays around or above $100 a barrel, expectations for another October hike may remain elevated. The focus would then shift to whether risk assets can absorb another near-term rate increase while bonds remain under pressure.
On crypto, Wintermute said BTC closed above its 50-week moving average for the first time last week. It identified $82,500 as the upper bound of the prior trading range and the key level to watch this week. Holding that level could support the earlier breakout, while a drop below it would put the validity of the move back under scrutiny. The report also noted rising BTC dominance, broad altcoin participation, and continued institutional positioning in low-delta year-end call options and call spreads.
According to ChainCatcher, Wintermute said risk assets extended their gains last week even as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5%, its highest level since 2007, with no clear sign of a flight to safety in the market.
Crypto led the move. Altcoins rose about 5% as a group, BTC followed, and the Nasdaq also finished higher. U.S. Treasuries with maturities longer than 20 years were the weakest performers.
Oil seen as the key variable for October rate expectations
Wintermute said oil prices will be the key factor shaping expectations for a rate hike in October. Crude transport volumes through the Strait of Hormuz remain well below pre-conflict levels, while Brent crude is trading near $103 per barrel.
If oil continues to hold around or above $100 a barrel, the market may keep expectations for another October hike at elevated levels, the report said. The main question would then become whether risk assets can absorb another near-term increase while bonds stay under pressure.
BTC clears the 50-week moving average, with $82,500 in focus
In crypto markets, BTC closed above its 50-week moving average for the first time last week. Wintermute said $82,500 marks the upper end of the previous consolidation range and is the key level to watch this week.
If BTC can hold that level, it may provide a base for the earlier breakout. If it falls back below it, the market is likely to revisit whether the breakout remains valid.
At the same time, BTC dominance has continued to rise, altcoin breadth is already at a relatively high level, and institutional options flows are still adding year-end low-delta call options and call spread positions.
This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan. Disclaimer:
The market information, project data, and third-party content displayed on this platform are for industry information sharing only and do not constitute any form of investment advice or return commitment.
Cryptocurrency trading carries high risks. Users should fully assess their risk tolerance and make independent decisions. All profits, losses, and legal responsibilities are borne by the users themselves.
