Wintermute said in its latest market update that crypto markets have held up despite stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data in August, which pushed the probability of a rate hike to nearly 60%. Bitcoin briefly pulled back from $82,400 after the release, but still finished the week up 3.45% and above $80,000. The firm also pointed to $987 million in net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking a third straight positive week and bringing the three-week total to nearly $3.8 billion. In Wintermute’s view, that flow suggests the market has passed a key stress test under hawkish data conditions. The firm added that Bitcoin is down about 50% from its peak, a shallower drawdown than the declines of more than 75% seen at similar stages in 2018 and 2022, which it said reflects earlier participation from ETF and institutional capital. Wintermute said $82,000 is the key upside level to break, while $72,000 is the level that would signal a change in trend. It also flagged next week’s CLARITY Act vote, CPI data and the FOMC meeting, along with the end of Robinhood Chain Gas subsidies in late September, as near-term tests for the market.
Wintermute said in a market update that stronger-than-expected August nonfarm payrolls data pushed the probability of a rate hike to nearly 60%. Bitcoin briefly pulled back from $82,400, but still ended the week up 3.45% and above $80,000.
ETF inflows stayed positive for a third straight week
The firm said spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $987 million in net inflows. That extended the positive streak to three consecutive weeks, with cumulative inflows over the period reaching nearly $3.8 billion. Wintermute said this showed the crypto market had held up under hawkish macro data.
Drawdown remains milder than in earlier cycles
According to the update, Bitcoin is down about 50% from its peak. Wintermute compared that with declines of more than 75% at similar points in 2018 and 2022, saying the smaller drawdown reflects earlier participation by ETF and institutional capital.
Key levels and next week’s catalysts
Wintermute said capital is rotating out of stocks and gold and into crypto assets, which it described as a condition for a new cycle. It identified $82,000 as the key level Bitcoin needs to clear, while $72,000 is the level that would mark a change in trend.
The firm also pointed to next week’s CLARITY Act vote, CPI data and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting as events to watch. Separately, Robinhood Chain Gas subsidies are set to end in late September, which Wintermute said will be the first test of whether activity can remain durable.
It added that if Bitcoin falls below $72,000 and ETF flows turn clearly negative, the current view would need to be reassessed.
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