Wintermute said weaker U.S. labor data cut expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike, while U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds pulled in nearly $1.1 billion last week. Even with those inflows, Bitcoin lagged major U.S. equity indexes.
Soft July payrolls pushed September hike odds lower
In its latest market update published on Aug. 11, Wintermute said U.S. July nonfarm payrolls came in far weaker than expected. Instead of adding 80,000 jobs, the economy lost 23,000 jobs, according to the report. At the same time, about 264,000 people exited the labor force, pushing the participation rate to its lowest level since the pandemic and, excluding the pandemic period, the lowest since 1976. Wage growth also slowed to 3.2%, a five-year low.
Wintermute said the report was softer than the headline suggested and undercut the hawkish labor-market case. Market-implied odds of a Fed rate hike in September fell from 55% to 40%. As rates were repriced, risk appetite picked up again. Gold rose 7.25% over the week, while the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 gained 5.09% and 3.51%, respectively.
Spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs logged about $1.1 billion in weekly inflows
On the digital-asset side, institutional demand remained visible through ETF flows. Wintermute said U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $853.5 million. The firm described that as the strongest week since mid-April. Spot Ether ETFs also posted a fifth straight week of positive flows, reaching about $244.9 million.
The report said BlackRock accounted for more than 80% of the combined inflows across the two categories. Based on the figures cited by Wintermute, weekly inflows into spot Bitcoin and spot Ether ETFs reached about $1.0984 billion in total.
BTC and ETH still trailed the S&P 500
Price action did not keep pace with the fund flows. Wintermute said Bitcoin rose just 2.15% on the week, while Ether added 1.39%. Both gains fell short of the S&P 500’s 3.51% advance over the same period.
Wintermute said Bitcoin’s relative underperformance, despite its high-beta profile, suggests ETF buying may have run into meaningful supply at certain price levels. The report also said the narrative that capital had been rotating away from BTC over the past two weeks had now reversed.
Wells Fargo tokenized deposit plan and Sept. 15 CLARITY Act vote
Beyond macro moves and secondary-market trading, Wintermute also pointed to quiet progress in blockchain adoption by traditional financial institutions. The report said Wells Fargo plans to launch a tokenized deposit service this fall. The initial focus will be corporate clients using the U.S. dollar-to-British pound corridor, with the service running on the bank’s own blockchain network and broader expansion planned for 2027.
Wintermute said this shows large banks including Wells Fargo, JPMorgan and Citi are adopting crypto-based technology as settlement rails to defend deposits, rather than directly investing in crypto assets.
On regulation, the report said the U.S. Senate has scheduled a procedural vote on the crypto-related CLARITY Act for Sept. 15, setting up a clear test point for the industry’s compliance path.